Tag Archives: Tim Duncan

by | May 22, 2012 · 3:25 PM

Western Conference Finals Preview

“Why, Lord, must we play the Spurs?” -James Harden

Travis Huse: With the Oklahoma City Thunder’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night, our Western Conference Finals matchup is set. They can book their flight to San Antonio. Frankly, this series looks to eclipse the NBA Finals in terms of excitement. These games are going to pit the league’s two best offenses against each other, and with some very strange matchups to make things interesting. We have the league’s best scorer in Kevin Durant being guarded by Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive rookie this season. The Thunder’s best defensive player, Serge Ibaka, will have to defend the rejuvenated and driven Tim Duncan. Manu Ginobili on James Harden. Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook trying to blow by each other. I’m totally pumped for these games. But looking at the Spurs lately, as well as their games against the Thunder this season, is there any hope for the Thunder to pull this off?

Doyle Rader: I agree that this series has great potential, it probably won’t be a seven game series as some might be hoping for, though. However, each game should be extremely competitive. As far as your matchup predictions I think you have it dead on with Leonard defending Durant. As for the rest I think that Scott Brooks will have Kendrick Perkins, if he is healthy, guard Duncan. Or at least until Duncan steals his lunch money and gives him a swirly. Perkins’ has the body mass to try and dislodge Duncan from the block but will get lost when Duncan drifts to the top of the key or his favorite 45 degree bank shot location. I just don’t see Ibaka as a viable defender on Duncan. His defensive prowess is predicated on off ball positioning and weak-side help and shot blocking. Ibaka has improved his face up defense this season but he need s the freedom to roam and hedge to be effective.

Much like we saw against the Clippers, the Spurs will probably use Danny Green to try and slow down Russell Westbrook. I doubt Parker will spend a whole lot of time guarding Westbrook this series. It looks like the Spurs have the advantage with disrupting the Thunder with the number of matchups and mismatches they can create on the court, but the Ginobili/Harden battle should be special.

TH: Ginobili vs. Harden is a great situation because they’re both 6th men, both fan favorites, and can play with some fire. As for Parker on Westbrook, I could see Pop keeping Tony on him just because he’s not Chris Paul. Against the Clippers, you need Green’s long arms to prevent Paul’s unparalleled passing ability, whereas with Westbrook, you’re going to be better the more he has the ball. If the Spurs can goad him into playing hero ball (like he did, in oh, say, last year’s WCF), the Thunder are done. The only way the Thunder have a chance is if Westbrook defers more. And if he can still score 30 while deferring. So it’s going to be tough.

Another thing I’d like to reiterate. This is a series that contains both the #1 and #2 offense in the league. But the Spurs stars have played so much less this season and are so much deeper, that the Thunder will need to highlight their defense to prevent giving up insurmountable leads while their stars rest. Look at these minutes numbers so far this season (including playoffs):

Kevin Durant: 2912
Russell Westbrook: 2655
James Harden: 2219

Tony Parker: 2203
Tim Duncan: 1890
Manu Ginobili: 1002

Even if you throw out Manu’s numbers because of his injuries in the regular season, that’s a pretty big contrast. Tony Parker has played less than OKC’s 6th man, which is a huge thing to take into consideration this season, because all those games were condensed.

DR: All of the OKC players you listed are younger than us. I think they’ll just fine in terms of fatigue, they have yet to show any signs of dwindling yet. In fact they outscored the Lakers in the combined fourth quarters of their series 119-97.

As you mention, these are prolific offenses. Maybe I’m just old-school, but I still think defense will define the series. The 7-Seconds or Less Suns never got to the Finals for a reason. The Spurs, though they have completely altered their identity, still have a defensive pedigree. They might not be as fast as the Thunder but they work well as a cohesive unit defensively and have completely dominated their previous opponents. I expect a platoon defense to be used on all three of the Thunder’s stars that features Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Green, Gary Neal, and Stephen Jackson. That’s a lot of bodies and fouls. Brooks should do the same against Parker and Ginobili with Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Thabo Sefolosha, and Daequan Cook. Don’t expect Derek Fisher to matter. The backcourt of San Antonio is too quick.

TH: Yeah, we’re going to see a ton of different lineups, but I think the onus is on the Thunder to figure out how to crack this Spurs team. San Antonio is on a roll, and performed very well against the Thunder this year (and since Kevin Durant first made the playoffs with this team, the Spurs have won 8 of 10). The strategies that they have been employing simply haven’t worked, and there’s no reason to believe that unless the Thunder manage to change their game significantly before the start of this series, that there is no plausible hope that they can win it.

DR: Scott Brooks has definitely grown as a head coach this season but he is out classed and outmatched in every conceivable way in this series. Gregg Popovich is one of the greatest coaches that the NBA has seen and is a future Hall of Famer. He has seen just about everything and has more contingency plans than NATO had for a Soviet strike during the Cold War. Pop is the best coach in the league, and not just because he won Coach of the Year this season. I just don’t see any coach left in the playoffs that could possibly out-coach him and that is what it is going to take to beat the Spurs.

TH: My neighbor gave me 10-to-1 odds on a bet that the Spurs would make the Finals. It was the day the Spurs signed Boris Diaw (March 23rd), and I felt at that time they were as complete as they could possibly be. Plus, I would have only lost 10 bucks. They’ve lost two games since then, and right now I feel pretty darn secure with that decision.

DR: As a Mavs fan it is hard for me to heap praise on the Spurs, (don’t fret Thunder fans, I equally despise your team too) but I’m not so biased as to be blind. They are the better team in this series, hands down. Spurs win the series in five games.

TH: 5 games? Damn, that’s rough. I’ll say they pop two off against the Spurs. Spurs in 6.

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by | April 18, 2012 · 2:58 PM

Ribeye to Eye: The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

Even the East is juicy this year

Doyle Rader and Travis Huse discuss the NBA’s Eastern Conference, namely the playoff situation (what do you think of this segment’s tentative name?):

DR: Before we get rolling on how we feel the Eastern Conference playoffs will look, I want to address something that I saw last night. Now, I didn’t watch this game, I feel sorry for anyone that did, but I kept an eye on the score throughout the night because, well, I simply didn’t believe what I was seeing. The Detroit Pistons demolished the Cleveland Cavaliers 116 – 77. Now, the 77 points that Cleveland scored are deceiving. On the surface it appears to be a respectable, albeit low, total. It most certainly was not. At the end of three quarters the Pistons were up 100 – 50. Yes, they had a 50 point lead. 50 points! My God! This is the NBA. I know that there is a very vague level of parity that exists in the league, although it often cannot be found on a nightly basis, but what an embarrassment. At least the Bobcats weren’t the worst team in the NBA for one night.

OK, had to get that off my chest. What do you think about the Eastern Conference playoff picture?

TH: I don’t even know how you let the Pistons drop 100 on you. In the middle quarters, the Pistons scored 71. The Cavs only scored 6 more points than that in the entire game.  Oof.

Home court appears to be set, with the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, and Indiana Pacers spread enough apart that no one will be able to chase them. Bulls’ losses at Miami and Indiana could give the Heat a slight chance to make the top seed, but that’s a tough thing to imagine. Due to the NBA Playoff format, Boston will nab the 4th seed after winning the Atlantic Division. The remaining four spots are a murkier view.  With Dwight Howard‘s back injury and the myriad of front office issues the Orlando Magic have faced, it’s hard to imagine them competing with the Atlanta Hawks for the right to play Boston.  That being said, they seem to be a more cohesive, team-first organization without Howard.  Teams with a distinct desire to win will remember this when Dwight-a-palooza 2.0 hits next season, and will likely pass.  He’s more meant for the organizations that have a need for PR purposes than ones who need to win.  Every team has a joker, a guy you can’t rely on (Luke Babbitt, Metta World Peace, Stephen Jackson with 29 NBA teams), but it’s not exactly the best formula for winning if that guy also happens to be your superstar.  Recent history has shown that in order to win, your best bet would be with a humble star (Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki), instead of the splashy names. Orlando’s not a postseason threat to anyone in limbo, but they might make a last push in order to save face. Knicks can have the 7th seed, whatever.

The 8th spot is something to consider, though.  Could the Philadelphia 76ers really fall out of the picture with only 5 games left in the regular season? Absolutely. The Milwaukee Bucks are only a game and a half behind, and they play the 76ers at home. Since the trade deadline, this Bucks team is almost, sorta, maybe clicking, somehow.  A loss here could spell doom for Philly.

DR: Humble stars? Are you forgetting Kobe Bryant? He may actually be humble off the court but on the court he is quite loquacious with his game.

You’re right about the Magic, though. They are dead in the water and I’m pretty sure that Atlanta has the tie breaker over them so it’s doubtful that they move up in the standings, especially with Howard resting his back injury for the foreseeable future. Some have even speculated that he could sit out the playoffs too. Drama Dwight knows how to play ‘em doesn’t he? The Magic will be a first round exit; the top three teams in the East are too good.

As for Philly, they are taking all their cues from the 2007 Mets. This was a team that I predicted was the scariest team in the East at midseason. I was way off with that one. It is simply mind blowing that they could fall apart this bad. There has been plenty of blame to throw around but it is the whole team that needs to accept responsibility for this showing. Andre Iguodala scored more than 20 points last night for the first time ALL SEASON. This is a well balanced team at virtually every position, and hypothetically, they can rely on scoring from all their pieces but this is crunch time and their balance is dwindling. It is completely conceivable that Milwaukee catches them.

New York is locked into the 7th seed behind the might of Steve “Discount Double Check” Novak. What a flawed and exciting team. I’m pretty sure that they can only exist with one star healthy at a time if they have any hopes of winning. Jeremy Lin led the team at one point, Stoudemire did it early on, now it’s Melo’s turn. It’s the oddest damn thing that they cannot coexist.

TH: Kobe’s an outlier, though, simply because of his self-concept as the post-Jordan Jordan. He’s his biggest critic, and he forces his teammates to play at the best of their ability. Dwight, Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James have been habitual excuse-makers, and it shows when they’re really tested in the playoffs.

As for the Knicks, I still think they can mesh. Mike Woodson has done a great job with Melo so far, and if he can get Stoudemire to buy into him (not his plays even, but Woodson the man), they’ll work. Melo’s triple-double against the Celtics is firm evidence that he’s much more likely to defer a bit to his teammates than ever before. As soon as the Knicks can get Anthony to pass the ball, we’ll see an increase in his shot selection, and they’ll be able to run high pick-and-rolls with STAT, and then they’re golden.  The Knicks need two things on offense, from my perspective. They need unselfish play from Anthony in pick-and-roll situations, and they need to move the ball from left to right in the halfcourt.  If they get defenses paying attention to that sort of movement, it will free up a TON of space for the stars to drive.

DR: With Amar’e coming back from injury soon, Woodson has indicated that he will insert him backing into the starting lineup. Thus, Carmelo will move back to small forward as he has been playing the four spot. I just wonder if this is going to hurt their defense moving forward since Stoudemire isn’t known as a defensive anything. But it looks like we will see a Knicks Heat first round series so that should be fun.

Anyway, there is one team flying under the radar right now and that is fairly unbelievable. The Indiana Pacers are cruising! They have won 10 of their last 11 games and are simply clicking on all levels. The change of tempo that Leandro Barbosa has brought to this team is remarkable. Danny Granger is efficient and resisting the ‘hero-mode’ urge more than usual. Roy Hibbert is a double-double machine and Tyler Hansbrough has returned to his ever scrappy play that we saw in the first round against the Bulls last year. Oh, and they have David West. This team IS dangerous, yet, no one is talking about them at length outside of the guys at eightpointsnineseconds.com. Whether they play Orlando or Atlanta in the first round, the Pacers should see the second round for the first time in a while.

TH: I love this Pacers squad so much.  They were a boatload of fun last season, and all the guys they added are quality.  Of course I have to love George Hill, but David West was such a wonderful pickup for these guys.  I truly feel that this time next year, once the Magic and Celtics and Hawks suck, they will cement themselves as a perennial contender and a new Bulls-Pacers rivalry will form, maybe one that puts Indiana on top.

DR: The job that Frank Vogel has done with this team is remarkable. They have won more games already this season, in a shortened year, than they did all of last year. There aren’t many teams that can make that claim who are making the playoffs.

I think, though, one of the biggest concerns going into the playoffs is the health of the star players. Derrick Rose has been hurt, Rajon Rondo landed hard on his coccyx last night, Howard is hurt, how will Amar’e integrate, and to a lesser extent, Zaza Pachulia is also hurt. Teams like the Bulls and Celtics need to be healthy if they expect to compete deep into the playoffs. I know players will play hurt in the post season with everything on the line but with the season wrapping up it might be wise just to rest players. Miami is already doing it. In fact they will probably be the most rested team by the time the postseason begins.

TH: I’m not going to lie, I burst out laughing when Zaza’s name came up. Only in Atlanta. Not exactly worthy of the “Highlight Factory,” but with Al Horford out, you take what you can get.

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by | April 16, 2012 · 5:48 PM

A Conversation about the Western Conference Playoffs

Maybe next year, Ricky

Doyle Rader and Travis Huse discuss the basketball world, namely the Western Conference playoff picture (We can’t think of a creative name for these segments. Help us out.):

DR: I wrote briefly on the race to get into the playoffs and how cluttered it is yesterday with the knowledge that it wouldn’t be relevant today. It isn’t. In fact, it was smashed to pieces (not really). Right now, though, the West is stacked up from the sixth through tenth seeds and there will be a lot of position jockeying over the next week and a half to see who will actually make it into the postseason. Even the third through fifth seeds aren’t set in stone and the Spurs could win the Western Conference outright. It’s cray, essentially. Tonight the Rockets and Nuggets face off once again as both teams fight to keep their playoff chances alive. Last night Denver came out in the second half and ran rough shot all over Houston, getting out in transition for easy buckets. Corey Brewer, Arron Afflalo, and Ty Lawson were seemingly everywhere. It was an impressive win. If they can do it again tonight, Houston’s chances at making the playoffs will certainly begin to dwindle. How do you feel the West could pan out?

TH: I actually envision the conference standing pat from here until the playoffs, unless a team tanks for better positioning, like the Grizzlies did last year.  The Jazz have been playing fantastically as of late, but they’re still a game and a half behind Houston, and frankly, there’s no way that the Suns manage to squeeze in.  If there is any movement at all, I feel it’ll be upward movement from either the Mavs or the Spurs.  Dallas has been playing much better since the departure of Lamar Odom, which goes to show exactly how poisonous he was to that locker room; in fact, it seems as if the team has been brought together by kicking him out.  So there’s a distinct possibility they can overtake Memphis, in my mind.

In a typical year, San Antonio would be heavily resting their stars, so a few losses this week and next wouldn’t be surprising.  But with the increased workload Tiago Splitter‘s been able to handle, as well as the addition of Boris Diaw, Tim Duncan‘s been kept to 28.4 minutes a game.  Talk about cray.  Gregg Popovich is now in a situation where he might actually increase the minutes for Duncan and Manu Ginobili, to prepare for their roles in the playoffs.  For entertainment’s sake, I really, really, REALLY hope the postseason matchups stay as they are, though.  Clips-Grizz would be one of the most exciting, physical series of all time.  Blake Griffin can dunk over anyone, but if anyone can contain them, the Memphis bigs could.  Posters galore.  Lakers-Mavs would be a wonderful rematch of last year’s stomping, but a Bynum-Haywood matchup could be problematic for Dallas.  Spurs-Nuggets could be a highlight of the importance of depth, with each team being able to run 3 full squads at an opponent.  The 7-game format would be a dream for those interested in NBA coaching tactics, and George Karl against Pop is as close to the best as we can get in the first round.  The 8th seed is going to get reamed, though.  No question.

DR: Yeah, the fate of whoever lands in 8th has had their fate sealed. I hope Utah can sneak in there, though. The Jazz won their last meeting with the Thunder so that gives me the slightest bit of hope that if they make it to the playoffs they won’t be swept. Tyrone Corbin has done a fantastic job with Utah and should be rewarded with a playoff berth.

As for Memphis, doom and gloom is in the air as they head into the postseason. Marc Gasol hyper extended his left knee on Sunday and the entire city of Memphis is holding its collective breath. He will have an MRI today to determine the severity of the injury. For the sake of Memphis, who I see as a “dark horse” (what a cliché term) in the playoffs, I hope he is going to be able to come back quickly.

TH: Derrick Favors! I still love that kid, but he needs a role with a different team, or they need to get a guard out of one of their bigs.  The Jazz will rocket right back into the playoffs in the next season or two, their front office is too smart.  Which team missing out on the playoffs this season do you think will make it next year?

DR: I honestly feel like it’s the Blazers. They have been a steady playoff team over recent years but they blew it up this year. They are rebuilding and if they can get one or two solid players around LaMarcus Aldridge I don’t see any reason why they should miss out on the playoff party next season.

Also, the Timberwolves are right there. When Ricky Rubio went down you could hear that team’s balloon burst. Everything changed. Their defense collapsed, their offense grew stale. Nothing was working right for them except for Kevin Love. He’s the man. If the NBA had an NIT, these two teams would be a lock for it.

TH: See, I’ve got two possibilities, and they hinge on one signing.  If Steve Nash stays in Phoenix, it will signify some roster moves to improve the team.  Therefore, they’ll be able to make the playoffs.  If they don’t, Nash is gone and they’ll be looking at a major rebuilding.  Which, to be fairly honest, might be the best thing long term for the Suns.  In this very-likely scenario, I like the idea of the Timberwolves next year.  That roster is filled to the brim with underrated talent, and Rick Adelman’s already done wonders.  It’s the funniest goddamned thing that David Kahn actually set up a pretty complete basketball team.  Imagine if we’d told ourselves in 2009 (or 2010, or 2011) that it could all fit together.

DR: Well, the Wolves still have their issues. Michael Beasley still has yet to find a defined role on the team and it looks as though he isn’t even going to get a qualifying offer from Minnesota, so he will be playing elsewhere next season, and Adelman just doesn’t seem to like Darko Milicic. What will be interesting to see is how much Nikola Pekovic can improve his game during the offseason and whether Martell Webster will get a haircut. Above all else, they need to stay healthy. Rubio, Love, Barea, Beasley, Luke Ridnour, Darko, and Pekovic all missed serious time this season. No matter how well the team is playing at any given point, injuries are a team’s death knell.

Maybe David Kahn is craftier than we all thought, or maybe he just got lucky. I’m going with the latter.

As for the Suns, BLOW IT UP.

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by | February 2, 2012 · 4:17 PM

What’s in a Game?

Even with less games, one game means much less in a lockout-shortened season.

I spent some time today with Doyle running over last night’s Mavericks-Thunder game, both teams’ chances in the West, and the strenuous (or is it?) relationship between the Thunder’s stars.

TH: Last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder managed to dismantle the reigning champion Dallas Mavericks.  The loss, though, is not too surprising, as the Mavs were without Lamar Odom and Brendan Haywood, and Jason Kidd is still out with his calf injury.  Dirk Nowitzki had a spectacularly awful game (2-for-15 shooting) and Rick Carlisle was thrown out of the game after punting a ball into a boy’s face.  How do you, Doyle, feel as a Mavs fan about this loss?

DR: I don’t think that the term “dismantle” is appropriate in this instance. This was a game that the Thunder should have won since they have been deemed the Golden Child of the Western Conference. You mentioned the absences on the Mavericks’ roster last night so this should have been a cake walk for OKC, but it wasn’t. This was a competitive game with the Mavericks finding ways to either lead or stay in contention until the final minute of the game. If Nowitzki did not shoot so poorly, clearly his knee is still bothering him, and if the Mavs had some shots fall late, the outcome of this game could have been different.

TH: The one worrying thing for the Mavs is this:  Nowitzki’s had a few bad games, is this all because of the knee or could there be a mental problem that’s causing his trouble?  He’s been complacent often this season, and watching the game against the Spurs (his first game back, I know), Dirk doesn’t seem as fearless as we’ve come to expect.

DR: I’m not as concerned with Nowitzki as I’m sure many are. It would be easy to blame his issues on the lockout but that is a cop-out that is used all too often in this shortened season. We are about a fourth to a third of the way through the season so I expect Dirk to miss more time this year for rest and conditioning. This is true for almost every player who will be injured this season. I also do not think that his recent struggles are mental either. Against the Thunder he stepped into several bold shots in the fourth quarter. Those shots simply did not fall. He’ll be fine as the season progresses and despite being the face of the franchise, the Mavericks have other players who can step up and fill the void when they are called on.

Dallas has the highest scoring bench in the league and also has one of the deepest. The likes of Jason Terry, Odom (when not dealing with a stomach bug), Vince Carter, Delonte West, Rodrigue Beaubois, Ian Mahinmi, and Brandan Wright have all shown that they are more than capable of contributing to the team when called upon. Sure, Dirk being in a funk is disappointing but it is not catastrophic for the team.

TH: Agreed, and playoff seeding is going to be strange this season.  We’ve already seen how younger teams are capitalizing on bigger minutes for their stars, teams like the 76ers, Clippers, and Thunder.  If they manage to keep their high playoff seeds, it will be interesting to see how the older, more experienced teams like the Mavs, Spurs and Lakers re-allocate minutes. Last lockout, an 8th seed made it to the Finals.

But defense wins championships, and that is what ultimately gave the Thunder an edge over the Mavericks.  Without Kidd, the Mavs have to rely on a combo of Roddy B. and West, and there are simply too many contending teams with point guards who will take that matchup to task.  Western teams like OKC and the Clips would fare differently against Kidd’s perimeter defense and smart hands.  Here are a couple questions for you: Do the Thunder deserve their current record?  How do you envision the rest of their season?

DR: I’m not certain that having either Beaubois or West on the court is a bad thing against some of the elite point guards in the league. Both are younger and quicker than Kidd is and therefore have to capability of keeping pace, or at least better than Kidd, with the likes of Russell Westbrook and others. Also, both Beaubois and West bring a different set of skills to bear when on the court. West is a tenacious defender who likes to come off the bench and play alongside Terry thereby alleviating West’s need to score as much even though he is an able scorer. He is on the floor to hairy the opposing point. Where Roddy excels is by pressuring his defender on the offensive side of the floor. Much like Westbrook, Beaubois has an innate ability to penetrate the lane, though he does so with less bombast. Kidd is still a handful with his passing, court vision, and IQ but he has lost a step and the Westbrooks of the league will exploit that. Having West and Beaubois helps the Mavericks be a flexible and more difficult team to matchup with.

As for the Thunder, of course they deserve the record they have, they have won 17 games thus far and you cannot take that away from them. Bill Parcells that is famous for saying “you are what your record says you are,” and for the Thunder that means they have the best record in the West. However, that is not to say that the Thunder are perfect. In fact they are far from it. They are an extremely talented team, let me put that out there first, but they are also extremely inexperienced. On the break, OKC is one of the most dangerous teams in the league, perhaps second or third to only the Heat and Clippers, because they are fast and have the ability to finish at the rim. Westbrook is the spearhead and plays like a charging bull, lowering his head and relentlessly moving forward despite obstacles. Add the scoring threats of Kevin Durant and James Harden and you have the third most potent offense in the league. It is that offense, though, that gets the Thunder in trouble.

On the break, everything works well. However, in the halfcourt the Thunder often look lost and their offense stagnates. Frequently, Thunder players stand and watch the ball handler try to create for themselves in an isolation situation. Yes, the Thunder’s big three are great individual scorers but a Joe Johnson-esque ISO bogs down the entire offense and instills a heavy reliance on long jumpers or contested drives. With the skills that these players possess it is shocking that the Thunder are not more creative offensively, Scott Brooks, in my opinion, deserves a lot of blame for this.

When the Thunder offense is mobile in the halfcourt they create boundless mismatches but these go ignored far too regularly. In the game against the Mavericks there was a possession where Harden had the ball and was determined to take the shot, with Shawn Marion guarding him I believe, while on a switch Terry was defending Durant. Harden did not make use of the obvious advantage his team had in that situation and wound up missing the shot he took. Why Brooks is not irate or frustrated that this scenario repeats itself seemingly every game is anyone’s guess. The Thunder have a lot of growing to do if they are actually going to grow into the team everyone thinks they are. Until that happens they should be looked on as a new version of D’Antoni’s Suns. A good team that won’t make the Finals.

TH: I’m not so sure they won’t make the Finals, with the Western Conference being weaker than it has been in years.  The Chris Paul trade fiasco essentially knocked the Lakers from contention, alienating Pau Gasol and losing Odom to the Mavs for peanuts.  Dallas lost enough players over the summer that this year almost seems like a mini-Mark Cuban rebuilding effort, and San Antonio appears limited in roster movement until Tim Duncan decides to retire.  When was the last time any of these teams appeared so fragile?  Already headed this way, the lockout and compressed season has hit older teams harder than anyone would have expected.

After last year’s Conference Finals appearance, the Thunder have the experience and resilience to make it, but it hinges upon favorable seeding matchups and Westbrook’s shot selection.  Durant has shown more leadership this season, but it might take an MVP trophy for the rest of the team to realize that he’s the clear #1; also, an increased role for James Harden could produce stagnation, as he loves watching the ball leave his hand.  You’re absolutely right that the blame falls on Scott Brooks.  He needs to explain to his team, in clear terms, that Kevin Durant is the best basketball player on the Thunder.

Durant’s been strikingly supportive of his teammates, and I love it.  Superstars in the league now tend to throw their team or their coaching staff under a bus if it suits their personal aspirations, while Durant’s shown a commitment to the city, its team, and management.  But maybe they’d be a more cohesive team on the court if he were to drop the humility a tad, and stepped up and took sole ownership of the team.

DR: I’m not certain that Durant becoming more of a focal point for the offense to flow through is necessarily the right course of action. That could elicit a #MeloSystem style of offense. I would like to see Scott Brooks shoot an email to Sebastian Pruiti and request some suggestions for plays in the halfcourt. They could be much more fluid if he did.

You are right though, the West is wide open and the Thunder need to exploit it, but they need to first battle through the surprisingly tough Northwest Division. If the playoffs began today they would have to face the Trail Blazers in the first round. That is far from a desirable match…but nothing in the West will be ideal this year.

Yes, the Thunder are a good team but their mediocre defense and lack of ball movement could be their eventual undoing. Until that time they need to enjoy the ride. Oh, and…something, something, Westbrook and Durant hate each other, something. There, I think I just covered the main issue that we have been dodging.

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by | June 22, 2011 · 8:26 AM

Spurs Blowing Up?

How dorky is this?

The San Antonio Spurs are looking to trade away Tony Parker.

As there is no way that they will receive equal trade value in return (they’re looking for high picks in the draft), it can only mean one thing: R.C. Buford’s looking to blow up the team. Speculation is that the Spurs are talking with the Toronto Raptors and the Sacramento Kings for their picks (5th and 7th, respectively).

I might be alone in this, but trading a recent Finals MVP for picks? The Spurs need size, and there’s not much of that to be had this year. If a trade goes through, the team must be looking at long-term recovery, because besides Enes Kanter, who is expected to be gone even by the 5th pick, the only other option at center is Jonas Valančiūnas, who needs a few more years in order to prepare for NBA play.

Then again, the Spurs will benefit from Tiago Splitter‘s second year under Gregg Popovich’s system (as the adage goes, everyone plays better their second year under Pop), and have a young 7-footer prospect Ryan Richards, who was spotted with the team a few times during this past season.

A trade with the Kings seems much more viable, bringing the Spurs Omri Casspi and allowing them to draft Kawhi Leonard.  Toronto doesn’t have as many viable pieces that the Spurs would want, and the difference between the 5th pick and the 7th for them isn’t noticeable.  Despite his comments this offseason, Parker’s still the best penetrator in the league, and the team wouldn’t want to give him away to draft Kemba Walker (I love Kemba, don’t get me wrong, but TP’s still in his prime).

But too many reports have come out documenting Parker’s desire to leave for them to be simple language-barrier issues.  Last offseason, his then-wife Eva Longoria was reported to have said that he wanted to leave San Antonio for The Big Apple.  After this year’s flop against the Memphis Grizzlies, he said that he didn’t feel the Spurs could contend for a title.  Speculation like this doesn’t fly with the Spurs organization, no matter your stat sheet, so I fully envision him being sent packing.

The past two seasons have shown that despite beautiful play, he is anything but untouchable.  He’s nowhere near as beloved to Spurs fans as Manu Ginobili or Tim Duncan, and George Hill‘s ascent makes him less needed.  The city itself seems to have grown cold with him as a person, and that’s never good in ol’ San Antone.

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by | May 18, 2011 · 1:43 PM

So, What Now?

Tim Duncan's contract is holding the Spurs back.

The question for the San Antonio Spurs is this: how do you rebuild when you haven’t had a lottery pick since 1997?

There’s little reason to believe they’ll receive one next year either.

Despite their first-round collapse against the Memphis Grizzlies, this team is still not likely to miss the playoffs.  The backcourt of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, along with bench players George Hill and rookie standout Gary Neal, will keep this team in position to earn a spot in the lower ranks of the playoff seeding.  Also, the team happens to have the greatest power forward to ever play in the league, even if he has lost a step or two (or three).

But the window for a Spurs championship is undoubtedly closed, so how should their front office plan for the future?

Many Spurs fans are calling for the team to trade away Richard Jefferson, who hasn’t meshed nearly as well with the system as hoped.  This is not the best thing the Spurs could do, though, because Tim Duncan will retire soon, and Jefferson is a relatively cheap cog that will fit well alongside Parker and Ginobili once he’s gone.  It’s also helpful to remember that Jefferson’s effective shooting percentage this past season was the best of his career (57.9%), as was his true shooting percentage (61.2%).  To compound this, the Spurs will never get a player of equal trade value for him, so why not wait and see how he does when he can combine with Parker and Ginobili as a penetration combination?

The bigger problem for the Spurs is their lack of strength and size inside, as was highlighted by their first-round series against the Grizz.  There’s an old NBA proverb that goes, “If your starting center is 6’9” and he’s not Ben Wallace, you’re in a heap of trouble.”  Except that DeJuan Blair is two inches shorter than that, but there wasn’t a viable alternative except for plugging in the geriatric Antonio McDyess, out of his natural position, in at the five, with Blair and Matt Bonner filling in.  Unsurprisingly, they had the stuffing knocked out of them by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.

But big men take time to cultivate, and it seems that there simply aren’t enough of them to go around.  With the Spurs paying Duncan $18 million next year, it seems highly unlikely that the Spurs will be able to snag Nenê from the Nuggets, even despite his relationship with Tiago Splitter.

So could you blow up the team and trade away the big 3?  Probably not, if you want to receive anything as good as you’re letting go.  Ginobili is an electrifying player, a clutch performer, and a fan favorite, and by many accounts the third best SG in the league.  There is no way they’ll let him go.  Duncan is the San Antonio Spurs, and the organization has a profound respect for him that will ensure his retirement in black and silver.  Parker is the most tradable, but for the time being, he is still the best at penetrating defenses and is capable on defense.

In Tiago, the Spurs have a future big.  He missed training camp this year, and was behind for the rest of the season.  He was Spanish league MVP and Spanish league Finals MVP in 2010, and is a wonderful defensive player.  The Spurs are also developing Brit Ryan Richards, who just turned 20 last month and could be a force in a couple of years in Europe.  He has a wide array of post moves, and the length to make a difference as a shot-blocker.

But honestly, the only thing that Spurs fans can do is to wait and trust your front office.  Take next season (if there is a season) as a farewell to Timmy and be incredibly grateful that you had a chance to watch him play for your team.  Remember fondly all the times opposing fans sneered and labeled him boring, because he was still lifting up and banking it off the glass.

Any big moves can wait until after he’s gone.  You owe him that much, at the very least.

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by | April 5, 2011 · 5:58 PM

Southwest Turning Sour

Some ugly moments from the Southwest Division's season.

The mighty Southwest Division looked like the powerhouse group of teams going into the All-Star Break but a bit of wind has been knocked out of the division since.

Dallas, New Orleans and San Antonio were the teams to beat with impressive win streaks and records against the NBA’s elite teams.  Now, it’s looking like the trio is falling into the playoffs rather than rushing in full steam ahead.

Together they amassed a 51-34 record against teams set to make the post season in both conferences before the All Star Game.  The Spurs built the best record in the league.  Dallas could beat anyone in the NBA and New Orleans had experienced two of this season’s best winning streaks.

Things were going well in the South but things have changed in the last few weeks.

New Orleans has fallen to seventh in the West and is set to square off against the hot Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs. Defense is still their game but no offense has marred their play since they have fallen to 27th in the league in scoring with only 95 points a night.  They have only scored 100 points or more five times since the break and are 6-20 this season when their opponents score 100 or more.

Ouch.

Essentially, it’s a case of too little depth down in the big easy, which is a problem that can infect every aspect of a team’s play.  Their bench is ranked 19th in the league with only 16 minutes of play a night and are only putting up 28 points a game (17th in the league).

It doesn’t help that David West tore his ACL against the Jazz on March 24th.  He was the leading scorer for the Hornets at the time and that’s not saying a lot.  It’s really been a case of Monty Williams opting to start a more defensive lineup there in New Orleans but regardless of what your system is, you need scorers.

Chris Paul is averaging fewer minutes per game than most of his previous seasons but they really lost a lot when Darren Collison left for Indiana and when they shipped Marcus Thornton to Sacramento.

Jarrett Jack is the only other point guard on the squad but to call that depth is a serious overstatement since the rest of the guard core is garbage (Marco Belinelli and Willie Green).

Now, it appears that Paul has tweaked something in his knee and hopefully it won’t turn out to be something serious.

Luckily, Carl Landry is finding his place in NO.  He started his time there scoring in the single digits against some of the NBA’s elite teams but is starting to get comfortable in the offense.

Trevor Ariza is having a very forgettable season in his first year playing for the Hornets.  He has only scored 20 or more points once this season and that was a mere 21 against the Knicks back on December 3rd (they lost that game).  Call him adjusting or  just call him an overrated player.  Whatever he is, he isn’t helping New Orleans win with his offensive game.

They started the season off 8-0 and on top of every pundit’s power rankings.  Since, they have essentially fallen off the face of the Earth outside of a few impressive stretches.  Don’t expect them to cause an upset in the first round.

They are set to face off against the Lakers who are on fire right now and it’s mainly due to the heightened play of their big men.  Andrew Bynum looks confident and Lamar Odom is providing increased depth for the defending champions.  Emeka Okafor and the rest of the frontcourt will have their hands full defending the big guys in LA.

Let’s move to San Antonio who has the best record in the NBA at 58-19.  Regardless, they have won one of their last seven games.  That just so happened to come against the struggling Suns on Sunday where they entered a must-win situation having lost their previous six.

Yes, Tim Duncan did go down with an ankle sprain and the Spurs were due for their annual injury.  They really lucked out when Tony Parker missed two games instead of two weeks at the beginning of March but their luck really ran out when they lost the four games that Duncan missed and the first two he returned for.

However, Duncan is getting old and it shows.  He is playing fewer minutes than ever before in his career and the season has dragged on for him.   He has only been the top scorer for them once this season and that was only 21 against the Thunder on New Years Day.  This new run and gun San Antonio team has incorporated the big guy well but it’s obvious that they are moving in a different direction that can sometimes leave the NBA veteran huffing and puffing up the court.

It’s interesting to see a team such as the Spurs change the way they play in such a short amount of time and it’s fared well for them so far.  Regardless, it has been shown that this style of play really doesn’t work for an 82 game season and playoffs.  Just look at the team they ended their losing streak against.

The Phoenix Suns faded every season under Mike D’antoni and that was with a team that was in much better shape.  Amar’e Stoudemire and Steve Nash were in their prime.  They had good depth with Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion as well.

The Spurs have the depth with Richard Jefferson finally finding his stroke, DeJaun Blair getting more comfortable and George Hill developing into a well-rounded scorer.  They are known for building and even rebuilding quickly down there in San Antonio but this one may be too soon.

If the playoffs started today, they would be matched up against Memphis that is experiencing a resurgence of their own.  They split their four games against the Spurs this season by losing the first two in San Antonio before winning the rest at home.

Surprisingly, they are playing very well without their lead man Rudy Gay and it’s mainly due to the heightened play of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen.  Shane Battier’s return to the Grizzlies is helping out a lot as well.

We aren’t saying that the Spurs are going to lose in the first round but the Griz will give them a good run that will further wear them down.  The second round wont be easy at all with possible matchups against the hot Lakers and a Mavericks team that might develop a strong taste for blood.

Additionally, there is a slight chance that they will loose that No. 1 seed to the Lakers that are only two and half games behind them.  The Spurs still have to play the Hawks at home, the Lakers in LA and even face the Suns in Phoenix.  Things could get interesting for this perennial playoff contender.

Next, we have the Mavs.

They look bombed out and depleted.

Injuries have plagued the boys from Dallas and that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.  Caron Butler was looking to have a full season in Mavs to really contribute on a contending team.  Tough luck when he tore his patella tendon against the Bucks on New Years Day.

It was very untimely since Dirk Nowitzki was already missing games at the time with a sprained knee that he suffered against the Thunder on December 27th.  They lost seven of the nine games he missed and the Mavs lost a key opportunity to catch up with the Spurs by losing to them twice in that time span.  They began the All-Star break without the same determination and energy they had entering the season.

Since, they are 3-7 against teams set to make the playoffs and all of those loses are against teams set to make it in the West.  The Mavs have slipped to the third spot in the conference and they look tired as head coach Rick Carlisle is trying his hardest to get them pumped up.

It isn’t working.

Jason Kidd is looking older and older as his minutes are staying in the 30s per game.  He went 0 for 10 in their last two games from beyond the arc and just can’t keep up at times.  The team has even opted to rest him as much as two of their remaining five games.

Jason Terry is set to play in all 82 games this season but even he is beginning to fade.  His fourth quarter game has slumped and his frustration sparked last week when the Lakers completely embarrassed the Mavs.  A fourth quarter shove by Terry against LA’s Steve Blake attracted a bit of unwanted attention from both Matt Barnes and the media in general.  Since, Dallas has been called soft, a term that shouldn’t be new to anyone on the team.

Even Tyson Chandler himself admitted that the Mavericks were a team that could easily be pushed around and he knows it from his days as a Hornet.  All the fight did was draw criticism and ignite the feud between Dallas and LA, which could carry on into the playoffs if the Mavs even make it to the second round

Right now, they are poised to start the playoffs againstthe Trail Blazers.  An unlikely hero has emerged in Portland with LaMarcus Aldridge making a strong case for most improved player.  He’s averaging 27 points against Dallas this season and we don’t expect that to let up once the playoffs begin.

Dallas will have their hands full against a surprisingly deep Portland squad.  Outside of Aldridge, they will have to game plan against Nate McMillan’s myriad of options.  Wesley Matthews and Andre Miller form a dynamic duo in the backcourt while Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace offer their own set of problems up front.

Every player on the Mavs will have their hands full come playoffs and their wont be any room to be tired.

Butler has stated that he will be ready for the playoffs but we need not look any further than Portland to see how players with injured knees do once the postseason begins.

Brandon Roy underwent surgery on his right meniscus after he tore it towards the end of the regular season last year.  He returned to Portland’s lineup for game four against the Suns in the first round but was essentially ineffective as Phoenix won the series 4-2.

With Butler, he is returning to a team that has changed a lot since his departure.  His minutes have been shared amongst Peja Stojakovic, Rodrigue Beaubois and Marion.  It might take more time than is available for him to find his place back in the Mavs’ offense.

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by | March 5, 2011 · 12:44 AM

San Antonio Spurs keep Winning

The Red Rocket will haunt Erik Spoelstra's dreams

Somebody should have told the Miami Heat that the San Antonio Spurs signed Charlie Sheen earlier this week. The signing was long over due, though, as Greg Popovich has been taking winning plays out of Sheen’s playbook for much of the season. Friday night Los Spurs channeled as much Sheen as they could as they squashed El Heat 125-95.

The drubbing began early on. In the first quarter San Antonio pounced on Miami on route to a score of 36-12 by quarter’s end. That point explosion was led by Matt Bonner who drained four three-pointers, all of which were uncontested as the Miami players rotated lethargically. If they even rotated at all on defense. Manu Ginobili found the mark from deep three times in the first as well. This game was over after the first twelve minutes had been played.

Miami, and especially LeBron James, tried to make a game of it in the second quarter as the Heat outscored the Spurs 38-26 in the frame. James paced his squad during the run scoring 15 of his 26 points in the second but the rally fell short and the Heat trailed by twelve points at the half.

An unexpected surprise in this game was the appearance of Tony Parker who had originally been expected to miss two to four weeks with a strained calf. Miami would have liked to see him in street clothes. Parker sliced the Heat defense, what little defense there was, anyway, and frequently got to the cup. He scored eight of his 15 points on layups alone.

Clearly, the Heat took exception to the embarrassment they were suffering and it spilled over onto the court. In the third quarter, as Parker was on a breakaway going in for a layup, Erick Dampier pushed Parker in the back sending him flying out-of-bounds. Dampier was quickly hit with a flagrant two foul and ejected from the game. Parker his both of his free throws after the foul.

Trillionaire Steve Novak entered the game shortly after the fourth quarter began and this game was officially over as both sides eventually cleared their benches.

San Antonio set a franchise record with 17 made three-pointers during the game, eight of which came in the first quarter. They were shooting 60.7 percent from behind the arc for the game. The Spurs shot 56.1 percent overall for the game. They knew what the outcome of the game was going to be and Tim Duncan let them know it on the bench in the first quarter as his told his teammates that it was “game over.”

Read his lips

Miami faces a situation now that is quite telling of who they are as a team. They have only won two games against the other top teams in the league. Clearly, the pieces surrounding the Trio are not working out, especially the bench. The Heat have the lowest scoring bench in the NBA.

Of late, it has been quite apparent that the Big 3 cannot do it all since they are essentially two and a half men. They need scoring help from elsewhere on the team but just are not getting it. Since each member of the triumvirate tends to operate better with the ball in their hands the offense can quagmire (giggity) frequently. An added concern, one that was brought up time and again when these players joined the Heat, was that this team has no real interior center to clog the lane. Dampier is certainly not the answer since his game is predicated on trying to get in the way and little else. Miami does not have a shot blocking threat to keep opposing guards from penetrating their defense.

No team is perfect, however. With their loss to the Spurs, the Heat have fallen to third in the Eastern Conference behind the Chicago Bulls. A playoff run is inevitable for Miami. There is simply no way that they can have a Mets sized collapse and miss the post season. The East bottom feeders are just too bad for that to happen.

However, the loss to the Spurs should send up warning signs. This team is in danger unless they can find a way to improve their play against the best teams in the league because each of them will appear in the playoffs. On Friday night, though, there was nothing that Miami could do. San Antonio had too much tiger blood coursing through their veins.

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by | February 7, 2011 · 6:38 PM

Overlooked Dallas could prove it’s their conference to rule

Dirk's injury caused Dallas to miss an opportunity to show the West who's the best.

After experiencing their best start in franchise history and having a steady hold of best in the West, teams should be afraid of someone else in the Lone Star State.

The Dallas Mavericks are getting miffed completely by the other team in Texas (and no, we are talking about the Houston Rockets).  This is the best team in the West that isn’t getting talked about for many reasons.

Yes, the Spurs are pretty good.  San Antonio is 42-8 and sits atop the Western Conference standings with a seven game lead over second place.  They are sixth in the league in scoring with 103.9 a game and are committing the fewest personal fouls in the NBA.

In addition, they are doing this in a new system of faster play and more scoring.  Last year, they were 15th in the league in scoring under a system that favored lock-down defense.  They are doing this with Tim Duncan playing less minutes than ever before in his career.  He has only been the leading scorer once this season for the Spurs with only 21 against the Thunder on New Years Day.  Their turnovers are staying down and they are doing it with a core that includes several young players in George Hill, DeJuan Blair and Gary Neal.  Yes, the Spurs look good.

Chicago and San Antonio are the only two teams that have beaten Dallas twice.

Dirk Nowitzki was out in both games.  They went 2-7 without the big German.  Seven losses and yes, it’s the Mavericks holding that second place spot in the West and yes, they are seven games behind them.

We can’t say whether or not the Mavs would be number one in the West if Dirk hadn’t gone down.  But you have to look at the fact that two wins in there against San Antonio would have eaten away at the Spurs lead in the conference.

He did score seven points in his debut back from injury but quickly responded with 32 a few nights later against Detroit and helped guide the Mavs in a win over the Lakers.

It’s ok though that people aren’t talking about Dallas.  It really doesn’t seem to bother this group of players that have known nothing but failure.  No one on this team has a ring and Jason Kidd is the only player on the team that has played in the finals twice (both were losses).

It’s not that the Mavs love losing but let’s be honest, it’s nothing new for some of these guys.  Dallas has only made it out of the first round once since making the finals with three first-round exits against Golden State, New Orleans and San Antonio.

Dallas is really stepping up in big games and it’s going to get them somewhere eventually.  They really showed some grit in their win against the Celtics in Boston last Friday also against the Lakers in Dirk’s third game back from injury.  They won both games without a key component as well.

The Mavs have essentially been playing and winning without the guy that is getting paid to score the second most points on the team.  Without Caron Butler, the Mavs only have two small forwards that can start and that’s Shawn Marion and now Peja Stojakovic.  DeShawn Stevenson is guarding well and shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc (a career best).  He has really emerged into an unlikely role player for Dallas and Tyson Chandler is keeping them fired up as well.

Dallas is going into tonight’s game against Cleveland on an eight-game winning streak.  It will be a nine-game streak by the end of the evening knowing the pathetic Cavs.

Additionally, February is a very easy month for the Mavs.  Aside from one game in Denver on the tenth, they have a very easy road schedule with games in Sacramento, Houston, Washington and Toronto.  They are 5-2 against those teams including Denver and they have beaten all of them except Toronto at least once.  If the Mavs ever loose to the Raptors again this year, the team should be very ashamed.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are slowing down a bit.  They have fallen down to tenth in the league in scoring in their last ten games and experienced a very questionable loss to Portland last Tuesday.  Their starters went 26-58 from the floor and LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 40 points on them.

Dallas can only look forward at this point since they should be very assured by how they have performed this season.  It’s nothing new that no one is talking about the Mavs but one thing is for sure, Dallas will be on a lot of team’s radar come playoffs.

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by | February 4, 2011 · 11:28 AM

NBA All Star Reserves 2011

Yesterday, even before the national announcement during TNT’s Thursday night lineup, the reserves for the All Star Game were leaked. This is not that surprising. In a world of constant communication it is near immpossible to keep something secret forever. Yet, out of the goodness of their hearts, Yahoo! waited until a few hours before the official announcement to release the names of those who would join the All Star Teams.

Eastern Conference Reserves:

Rajon Rondo

Jesus Shuttlesworth aka Ray Allen

Joe “Iso” Johnson

Paul Pierce

Chris “Fake Tough Guy” Bosh

Kevin Garnett

Al Horford (He deserves it.)

 

Western Conference Reserves:

Russell Westbrook

Deron Williams

Manu Ginobili

Blake Griffin (He made it!)

Pau Gasol

Dirk Nowitzki

Tim Duncan (This has to be a selection based on pure respect rather than numbers this season)

There will also be another player, selected by Emperor Stern, to replace Yao Ming in the starting lineup for the Western Conference All Stars because Yao is out for the season with yet another foot injury.

 

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