Tag Archives: Oklahoma City Thunder

by | October 24, 2012 · 4:32 PM

Northwest Division Preview

New kid on the block

Doyle Rader: The Northwest Division looks to be one of, if not the most, competitive divisions in the NBA this season. Last year three teams (the Thunder, Nuggets, and Jazz) made the playoffs. Utah made a late push to secure their playoff berth only to be eliminated by the Spurs in the first round. Denver took the Lakers to seven games in the Western Conference Semi-finals. And the Thunder eventually lost in the NBA Finals. This season the division is only deeper.

Both the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves were early season darlings to make the playoffs last season with the Blazers’ hot start and the emergence of Ricky Rubio in Minny. What curtailed these teams was the fire-sale in Portland and the injuries that plagued the Timberwolves. However, Minnesota has completely reloaded their roster in an attempt to make a playoff run this year. They just have to wait for Kevin Love to recover from his broken hand.

Travis Huse: What’s remarkable about this division is that each of its franchises is looking toward the future.

Let’s begin with what’s been going on in Denver: the Nuggets’ reload looks really enticing to me, much in the same way that the Pacers have the past couple of seasons. They’re going to play blindingly fast, group-effort basketball, a hard-nosed team approach. What really makes things interesting is Iguodala’s defensive role, alongside his ball handler abilities, which were hidden behind Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday in Philly.

Iggy will have to play the roles of Danny Granger, Metta World Peace, and Lebron James simultaneously, and how successful he is at integrating with George Karl’s style will determine the success of this team. Coupled with the maturation of Ty Lawson and JaVale McGee (seems strange to mention maturity and McGee together), this is a well-built team, with players who complement their teammates’ strengths. Next step: tightening up on defense.

DR: Yes, their pace belies a low defensive effort as they want to be streaking up and down the floor. However, this team has the potential to be quite serviceable defensively and it all begins with Iguodala.

He will be their premier perimeter defensive player and will be tasked with defending the opposing team’s best wing player and even point guards at times. Denver must focus its defensive efforts in transition. This is where the team will be most venerable. In the halfcourt they have the like of McGee and Timofey Mozgov, as well as Kosta Koufos (who I particularly enjoy watching), to anchor the middle with Iguodala patrolling the arc.

Where I think Iguodala will be most beneficial to the Nuggets is when they play the Thunder. It will be his job to guard Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City won this division last year on the back of Durant’s scoring so bringing an elite defender was very important for Denver.

TH: Yeah, OKC is still the hands-down favorite to win this division this year, regardless of whether or not James Harden receives an extension. But next year, who knows? There’s so much young talent on these teams and the stars for each team are about to truly hit their stride.

Damian Lillard running the Blazers could change the entire dynamic of LaMarcus Aldridge’s game, assuming they didn’t handicap themselves too much with Nicolas Batum’s contract. In the Northwest, they’re the furthest away from being a playoff lock, and I could envision this division becoming as competitive as the Southwest was a few years ago. They’re thin as hell as just about every position, but for a rebuilding team, they don’t look to be wallowing in their sorrow for much longer.

DR: You’re right, the Thunder are the class of the division. That shouldn’t change this year and perhaps Kendrick Perkins will actually be useful to them now that Dwight Howard is in the West. Yet, he is still a liability against the more hybrid centers.

As for Portland, Lillard has shown that he is ready to compete at the NBA level. In five games this preseason, Lillard has averaged 17 points on 50 percent shooting while also dishing out six assists per game. Beyond the numbers, he is assertive on the court, even aggressive at times. Against the Lakers he frequently attacked Steve Nash off the dribble, getting to the rim with ease once he became comfortable with the flow of the game. Of course, Nash has never been a good defender but it was impressive to see a rookie go directly at a two-time MVP with little regard for his mythos.

What will hurt the Blazers is their lack of depth. Jared Jefferies will contribute more than anyone knows off the bench, though it may not always show up in the box score. Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard, the team’s only true center, are major questions who have considerable upside.

Outside shooting will also be an issue going forward. This is a team built around the mid-range jumper. If Aldridge goes down again, this team will wallow in the basement once again.

TH: You’re neglecting Batum here. His contract is so weighty, the Portland front office will push him to fill more of a starring role, and the hiring of Terry Stotts as head coach will also give him more responsibility. If Stotts is able to formulate this team based off what he saw in Dallas, and modify the 2011 championship core of Jason Kidd-Jason Terry-Dirk Nowitzki (Lillard, Batum, and Aldridge, respectively), the Blazers have more than enough skeleton for their squad.

Which means:

Much is spoken on how the NBA’s system favors tanking. But teams are finding creative ways to rebuild without having to ride the lottery hoping for a once-in-a-generation talent. The Blazers are well on their way to rebuilding (only 7 months after blowing their team up), without having to seriously tank.

They were only 8 games out of the playoffs last year, and while this year might be a bit sore, Blazers fans should be optimistic. They managed a sizable reformation in the quietest way possible, and they did it with a vacant GM seat for over a year. Looking at what Neil Olshey created with the Clippers, it will be interesting to see how he fleshes out their roster.

Another franchise attempting a “soft rebuild” is the Utah Jazz, a team that has really reached a crossroads. Swapping Devin Harris for Mo Williams isn’t exactly a game-changer (it’s never a good idea to start a third-string PG from the Clippers), and Raja Bell is as good as gone. They need guard help badly, and the big man logjam finally must give. If the team still cannot decide whether they trust Enes Kanter or Derrick Favors, they need to move them sooner, rather than later. By all accounts, Kanter has an ego, and will not like playing second fiddle to Al Jefferson; but Jefferson’s much too good to move.

DR: If we are going to make a Mavs comparison when it comes to the Blazers, I feel that Batum represents more of a Shawn Marion role. Only his scoring responsibilities will be somewhat equivalent to Marionon the Suns.

As for the Jazz, they have a wealth of big men and they seem to be happy about it. I don’t think it’s a question about if they are willing to move Jefferson, but rather they could lose Paul Millsap. That would truly be a blow to this organization but as you pointed out they have Kanter and Favors.

Last season, Kanter was essentially a non factor. His skills around the rim were unpolished, to be kind, and played mostly during garbage time. So far in the preseason he has been drawing double-teams and averaging a team high 12 points per game. The jazz seem content to run out a platoon rotation in the post which should help later in the season as it allows their stars (Jefferson and Millsap) to rest. Kanter and Favors should garner around 20 minutes a night.

Mo Williams is a completely serviceable point guard. I doubt he can return to the form he showcased in Milwaukee, but he still has the ability to run an offense effectively while also scoring the ball. Like Memphis, Utah runs a lot of post plays but Williams’ outside shooting and ability to dish the ball should open up the floor creating opportunities for shooters like Alec Burks, Randy Foye, Gordon Hayward, and Marvin Williams.

Hayward will be key for the Jazz. He is quietly becoming a good perimeter defender and has gained a considerable amount of muscle since coming into the league. Tyrone Corbin has molded Hayward into a hardnosed, physical defender. It would not surprise me if he was at least discussed as a possible DPOY if his improvement continues. He won’t win, but he making the discussion is always a plus.

TH: I’m not saying that their big man platoon isn’t a bad idea. It’s a great thing to have through an 82-game season. However, both Kanter and Favors are starting-caliber players in the NBA right now. Favors is nearing the end of his rookie contract, a solid producer with room to grow (and a team option for next season). Aside from the solid production at a low price tag, these players are highly desirable for contending teams for many reasons. Kanter is a skilled big body who plays a thin position.

Would the suddenly broke Sam Presti really contemplate letting James Harden go in order to free up cap space? Probably not, but that is not a bad rumor to float.

I can only think of three NBA teams who wouldn’t listen to offers on Kanter, because they are seriously the only NBA teams without concerns in the middle. The Lakers have Dwight now; the 76ers are going to see where Bynum goes as a leader. I had to throw in the Raptors, because, well, they’re in a similar situation as the Jazz; the arrival of Jonas Valanciunas has made Bargnani more than expendable.

You’re also right about Mo Williams: He is a completely serviceable point guard. But with their lineup, the Jazz are one torn ligament away from Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson bringing the ball up the floor. The Jazz are lacking roster balance, and their contingency plan is Alec Burks.

DR: My love of the bad boy Pacers has always endeared me to Tinsley and Watson filled in well when Devin Harris was hurt last year. It could be worse for the Jazz.

One team with high hopes for the season is already bemoaning their star being out with injury. As I mentioned above, Kevin Love will miss at least the first month of the season with a broken hand resulting from the oh-so-cool-bro knuckle pushups. Luckily, the Timberwolves have reloaded their roster.

They brought in Brandon Roy, fresh from retirement, bad knees and all and added Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved from Russia. Nikola Pekovic also hails from Russia and is one of the better centers in the league. Despite the number of white guys on this team, the Timberwolves are primed to make the playoffs. Hell, their guard rotation alone is enough to get them there and they are stacked beyond that. Once Love returns they could be dangerous in the West.

It will be interesting to see how Derrick Williams fits into the rotation. He seems to be the odd man out this year despite being drafted so highly two years ago.

TH: With Love out until December, this Timberwolves squad is left without its two young stars in Love and Ricky Rubio. How the team fares without them will be a good litmus test to see how the rest of the rotation fits. But this is also a team that, like you mentioned, added Roy, who’s never been afraid to put his team on his back. These injuries will strengthen the Wolves, and I anticipate one of their wings picking up the scoring slack. There are many questions as to just exactly who will rise, but their depth chart, from 1 to 3 is loaded with talent. J.J. Barea is only one year removed from being an unstoppable blur for the Mavs, and he’s still buried behind Rubio and Luke Ridnour. Shved’s a monster, and should have a fairly easy transition to the NBA with Kirilenko beside him.

And all that is forgetting Chase Budinger, who will be able to fit in much the same way that Wilson Chandler has in Denver, slashing and providing decent outside shooting (believe it or not, he posted a 40% 3-point percentage last season) for the second unit. The whitest of white dudes in the NBA these days, Budinger is often overlooked, but his time spent with Rick Adelman in Houston will give him an early chance to prove himself. He’s dangerous when left in the corner, and when Love and Rubio return, it will be key for them to utilize their passing abilities and wing talent.

Injuries or not, this team is going to be fast and fun, with a healthy amount of competition amongst players vying for minutes. The coaching change should help us to see a bit more specialization of players, as well as championship experience.

Oh, and they got rid of Michael Beasley. Thumbs up on that one.

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by | June 20, 2012 · 2:48 PM

Miami Heat Poised to Win Championship

One more

Doyle Rader: With the Miami Heat one win away from their second ever NBA title, now is as good a time as any for us to talk about the Finals. Last night, the Thunder, namely Russell Westbrook, threw everything they had at the Heat in an attempt to tie the series but came up just short as they have in every game since Game 1. Plenty of people are singling out Westbrook for the foul he committed on Mario Chalmers with 15 seconds left in the game as the moment the Thunder lost the game. (They were down three points at that time.) Yet, this is a complete overreaction to the play in my opinion. If it wasn’t for Westbrook in the first place the Thunder would have likely not even been in this game. He poured in 43 points on 20 made field goals. Everything was falling for him last night. It was a performance on par with what Rajon Rondo did against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. During the presser LeBron James even likened those two performances to each other. It seems to me that a new narrative (it isn’t that new actually) is forming around Westbrook, scapegoating him, doubting him, much in the same ilk that James has dealt with throughout his career. However, James is on the cusp of shattering his previous narrative and the baggage that came with it.

Travis Huse: If we’re looking at problems here, it’s not Westy. Harden went
2-10 last night and finished with 8 points, and here’s the part where I tell
you that he was still third in the Thunder’s point totals. They managed to
beat the Spurs with an effective team play atmosphere, and they’ve lost the
contributions from Harden and Serge Ibaka. Smart team play can defeat Miami, but pitting a “Big 2″ against a “Big 3″ is suicide.

Casual basketball fans tend to place much more emphasis on offense than
defense, and that’s the population most affected by Anti-Westbrook Fever.
But you can’t overlook how the Heat have been able to control the tempo of
the game, and Harden looks thrown off. He was 2-10 on Sunday, as well, held
to only 9 points. If he wants the label of next-generation Manu Ginobili, he
needs to step up better now, where it really matters.

DR: You’re right, Harden has been bad, but it isn’t just his shooting. For
some reason, and there has been much to talk about concerning Scott Brooks’
rotations, Brooks insists on having Harden defend James for extended periods
of time. I know that James is a player that is difficult to defend on every
level but this simply is not where Harden should be utilized on the
defensive end. Time and again, James will just post him up since he is
bigger and stronger and the results have been devastating.

Zach Lowe over at SI.com touched on that today. By his tally, Miami scored 24 point on James post-ups. The points did not all come from LeBron as he was able to hit open teammates when double teams came his way. He finished the game with 12 assists. How can anyone stop him at this point, let alone an undersized player known more for his offense?

It’s not just Harden, though, you are correct in pointing out Ibaka’s
dramatic fall-off but Kendrick Perkins has been equally awful. He is the
wrench in the gears. Nick Collison showed flashes of brilliance against the
Heat in Game 4 but then vanished. Poof! Scott Brooks is showing us his
inexperience with these stubborn, and at times haphazard, lineups that he
has been throwing out there.

Last year Rick Carlisle showed his flexibility by inserting J.J. Barea into
the starting lineup to wondrous results for Dallas as they went on to win
the championship. Erik Spoelstra was left in the dust scratching his head as
he stuck with Mike Bibby in the starting lineup for too long. Now, Spoelstra
is in command and his small center-less lineups are rendering OKC’s bigs
completely useless.

TH: To be very honest, one of the biggest hindrances in Lebron’s career has
been his unwillingness to post up. He used to be very prone to jacking Josh
Smith-type 3s, so much so that every time I play against him (Miami or
Cleveland) on the 2K games, I will sag off him and make him shoot it. I
might have to change my approach with the next one. And it makes sense that
their success has revolved around his post play, because the dude is the
biggest, strongest, most athletic person that might have ever existed. The
Thunder don’t have anyone who’s going to be able to defend him without
leaving a glaring mismatch. I’m not sure anyone in the league does, and
that’s why the Heat are one win away from the championship.

They’re a stronger team than last year, and they’ve found a way for both
Lebron and Dwyane Wade to play together. Right now their bench is outplaying the Thunder bench. I don’t see any way the Thunder make it as champs, and you’re right, Spo is out-coaching Brooks. Unless something drastic changes, the Heat seem to be poised to close this one out sooner rather than later.

DR: After the body language that Durant showed last night in the post game
presser this series could wrap up Thursday night. During that presser we
witnessed the return of Durant’s backpack, which had been MIA all
postseason. It too was just as sad an dejected as Durant as he let it fall
to the floor, shoulders slumped. It reminded me of the Western Conference
Finals last year. There were many a sad backpacks to be found in that
series.

Here’s the thing though, as I am not a true fan of either of the teams in the Finals, just a fan of the game, I have slowly come to view the post game presser as must-see throughout these playoffs. Sure, the questions are generally fluff, verging on inane at times, but I find them to be truly interesting.

Chris Bosh, who has been great this series, gives one of the best presser
interviews there are. Honestly, if more people heard him speak, instead of
instantly buying into the “Like a Bosh” or “Bosh Face” trope, they would see
just how smart, composed, and well spoken he is.

But of course the presser is all about the clothes. Man, these players
(Westbrook) wear some silly expensive shit. That said, Wade won the presser
clothes game last night when he came out wearing glasses that were straight
off the face of Dwayne Wayne from Different World.

TH: I’ve never really understood why Bosh gets so much shit. He’s a consistent 20-10 player, a perennial all star, who stretches the floor very well. His outside touch does wonders for the sometimes-anemic Heat offense, exposing the rim for the slashing of the other two stars.

It has become so commonplace to make fun of the Heat, that the worst thing I could think of has happened. I have moved past resenting them, past feeling sorry for them, into rooting for them as an underdog. Obviously, they are not the underdog, but I now feel that I have to throw stats in the faces of anyone who harps in on how much they hate the Heat.

DR: I found myself in the same place as the Finals started this year. For various and extremely biased reasons I cannot bring myself to root for the Thunder organization so that left me with only one choice. I have James many times on this blog, taking both a negative and positive view of him and his game. Seeing all the backlash towards one of the greatest players the league has ever seen has continually shocked me, though. Sure he, and the Heat have made some questionable choices in the past but does that really outweigh what goes on in a game? Miami is the most scrutinized team in sports and it is simply ludicrous to hear some of the things said about them.

The Heat deserve to win the championship this year, if for no other reason that silence the doubters who continually lob volley after volley of asinine rhetoric interspersed with buzz words at them all the while refusing to make sound judgments and arguments. At this point, if winning a championship is the only way to get it through the thick skull of some people that James is good and so are the Heat then so be it. They shall be vindicated.

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by | May 22, 2012 · 3:25 PM

Western Conference Finals Preview

“Why, Lord, must we play the Spurs?” -James Harden

Travis Huse: With the Oklahoma City Thunder’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night, our Western Conference Finals matchup is set. They can book their flight to San Antonio. Frankly, this series looks to eclipse the NBA Finals in terms of excitement. These games are going to pit the league’s two best offenses against each other, and with some very strange matchups to make things interesting. We have the league’s best scorer in Kevin Durant being guarded by Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive rookie this season. The Thunder’s best defensive player, Serge Ibaka, will have to defend the rejuvenated and driven Tim Duncan. Manu Ginobili on James Harden. Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook trying to blow by each other. I’m totally pumped for these games. But looking at the Spurs lately, as well as their games against the Thunder this season, is there any hope for the Thunder to pull this off?

Doyle Rader: I agree that this series has great potential, it probably won’t be a seven game series as some might be hoping for, though. However, each game should be extremely competitive. As far as your matchup predictions I think you have it dead on with Leonard defending Durant. As for the rest I think that Scott Brooks will have Kendrick Perkins, if he is healthy, guard Duncan. Or at least until Duncan steals his lunch money and gives him a swirly. Perkins’ has the body mass to try and dislodge Duncan from the block but will get lost when Duncan drifts to the top of the key or his favorite 45 degree bank shot location. I just don’t see Ibaka as a viable defender on Duncan. His defensive prowess is predicated on off ball positioning and weak-side help and shot blocking. Ibaka has improved his face up defense this season but he need s the freedom to roam and hedge to be effective.

Much like we saw against the Clippers, the Spurs will probably use Danny Green to try and slow down Russell Westbrook. I doubt Parker will spend a whole lot of time guarding Westbrook this series. It looks like the Spurs have the advantage with disrupting the Thunder with the number of matchups and mismatches they can create on the court, but the Ginobili/Harden battle should be special.

TH: Ginobili vs. Harden is a great situation because they’re both 6th men, both fan favorites, and can play with some fire. As for Parker on Westbrook, I could see Pop keeping Tony on him just because he’s not Chris Paul. Against the Clippers, you need Green’s long arms to prevent Paul’s unparalleled passing ability, whereas with Westbrook, you’re going to be better the more he has the ball. If the Spurs can goad him into playing hero ball (like he did, in oh, say, last year’s WCF), the Thunder are done. The only way the Thunder have a chance is if Westbrook defers more. And if he can still score 30 while deferring. So it’s going to be tough.

Another thing I’d like to reiterate. This is a series that contains both the #1 and #2 offense in the league. But the Spurs stars have played so much less this season and are so much deeper, that the Thunder will need to highlight their defense to prevent giving up insurmountable leads while their stars rest. Look at these minutes numbers so far this season (including playoffs):

Kevin Durant: 2912
Russell Westbrook: 2655
James Harden: 2219

Tony Parker: 2203
Tim Duncan: 1890
Manu Ginobili: 1002

Even if you throw out Manu’s numbers because of his injuries in the regular season, that’s a pretty big contrast. Tony Parker has played less than OKC’s 6th man, which is a huge thing to take into consideration this season, because all those games were condensed.

DR: All of the OKC players you listed are younger than us. I think they’ll just fine in terms of fatigue, they have yet to show any signs of dwindling yet. In fact they outscored the Lakers in the combined fourth quarters of their series 119-97.

As you mention, these are prolific offenses. Maybe I’m just old-school, but I still think defense will define the series. The 7-Seconds or Less Suns never got to the Finals for a reason. The Spurs, though they have completely altered their identity, still have a defensive pedigree. They might not be as fast as the Thunder but they work well as a cohesive unit defensively and have completely dominated their previous opponents. I expect a platoon defense to be used on all three of the Thunder’s stars that features Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Green, Gary Neal, and Stephen Jackson. That’s a lot of bodies and fouls. Brooks should do the same against Parker and Ginobili with Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Thabo Sefolosha, and Daequan Cook. Don’t expect Derek Fisher to matter. The backcourt of San Antonio is too quick.

TH: Yeah, we’re going to see a ton of different lineups, but I think the onus is on the Thunder to figure out how to crack this Spurs team. San Antonio is on a roll, and performed very well against the Thunder this year (and since Kevin Durant first made the playoffs with this team, the Spurs have won 8 of 10). The strategies that they have been employing simply haven’t worked, and there’s no reason to believe that unless the Thunder manage to change their game significantly before the start of this series, that there is no plausible hope that they can win it.

DR: Scott Brooks has definitely grown as a head coach this season but he is out classed and outmatched in every conceivable way in this series. Gregg Popovich is one of the greatest coaches that the NBA has seen and is a future Hall of Famer. He has seen just about everything and has more contingency plans than NATO had for a Soviet strike during the Cold War. Pop is the best coach in the league, and not just because he won Coach of the Year this season. I just don’t see any coach left in the playoffs that could possibly out-coach him and that is what it is going to take to beat the Spurs.

TH: My neighbor gave me 10-to-1 odds on a bet that the Spurs would make the Finals. It was the day the Spurs signed Boris Diaw (March 23rd), and I felt at that time they were as complete as they could possibly be. Plus, I would have only lost 10 bucks. They’ve lost two games since then, and right now I feel pretty darn secure with that decision.

DR: As a Mavs fan it is hard for me to heap praise on the Spurs, (don’t fret Thunder fans, I equally despise your team too) but I’m not so biased as to be blind. They are the better team in this series, hands down. Spurs win the series in five games.

TH: 5 games? Damn, that’s rough. I’ll say they pop two off against the Spurs. Spurs in 6.

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by | February 28, 2012 · 7:17 PM

Midseason Report: Geedorah’s Reign

King Geedorah has escaped from Monster Island to spread terror from Miami

The brisket is finished not smoking. As the second half of the shortened regular season has just begun and because we like to procrastinate here at the Beef, I take a look back at the entirety (well the tasty bits at least) of the first stock of  games. This would have been written earlier but I had to let the Linsanity settle in my belly. Phew, OK, now that it is nice and digested, it could have used a little spice actually, let us recall some of the notable moments so far and while we are at it make some projections for the second half, shall we?

Best in the East:

Well, this is Miami’s conference. Hands down. No question. Other such clichés. They begin the second part of the season with a 27-7 record which is tied for the best record in the league. None of this should actually surprise anyone though, well maybe someone in Kazakstan, but no one who follows the sport.

Coming off their Finals loss, King Geedorah and company were heavy favorites to return to the Finals and win it all this season. At this point is seems like a sound bet that they will. Yes, Chicago is just behind them in the standings but something just does not seem right about their chances. I cannot quite place it but they seem to lack the explosive power that Miami has, oh, and LeBron James jumped completely over John Lucas earlier in the year.

Best in the West:

Sigh. It irks me to say this but the Thunder are the best team in the West but I will add a caveat to make myself feel better. They are the best because they have the best record. If you read this blog ever you have probably surmised that I have a number of doubts where the Thunder are concerned, especially with their drive or bailout jumper style of offense. This does not mean that I do not respect the talent that Sam Presti has assembled in Oklahoma City, but as a Texan I can never credit anything in Oklahoma as desirable. Sorry. (Actually, I’m not sorry.)

Scariest team in the East:

In West Philadelphia born and raised…yes, that is right. The Philadelphia 76ers are the scariest team in the East. This is coming from someone who is also an unabashed fan of the Pacers but Indy has been stomped soundly by the Heat a couple of times this season already.

Philly, as the trend seems to be with teams on the rise this year, has the ability to strike from almost anywhere on the floor as they do not rely on a single star to carry the team. Instead, almost every player down the roster is capable of scoring when presented with the opportunity. However, it is on the defensive end of the floor where the Sixers make their mark.They lead the NBA in defensive efficiency and also hold their opponents to the lowest effective field goal shooting percentage in the league. The Fresh Prince would be proud of his home town team.

Now if only Spencer Hawes would get healthy…

Scariest team in the West:

Never discount the old dogs. San Antonio is the scariest damn team in the league possibly. Their Rodeo Road Trip seems to have renewed the team team…again. Who saw that coming? It isn’t like it happens every year like clockwork. Yet, this is not your slightly older sibling’s Spurs. No, this incarnation of the team is all about offense. Toss out the defense.

Oh, and they are scoring buckets on buckets on buckets with Manu Ginobili suffering two separate injuries thus far. Too bad for the Spurs that they are second in the West because their best match up in the first round could be the Thunder. San Antonio completely smoked them last time they faced each other.

MVP:

LeBron. No brainer.

DPOY:

I am completely in favor of term limits so it has to go to Tony Allen this year. He might not have all the flashy numbers to back up his ability to defend, but he is, in my opinion, the best perimeter defender the league has seen since Metta World Peace was named Ron Artest and playing for the Pacers.

ROY:

With just half the season over it is a tie. (Sorry, I know that is a cop-out but I doubt you actually read this far anyway.) Ricky Rubio and Kyrie Irving.

MIP:

Jeremy Lin. I don’t think I need to explain that one. However, I should make reference to players who were making a strong case, at least to me, for most improved before Linsanity: Ryan Anderson and Ersan Ilyasova.

Sixth Man:

James Harden. Yawn.

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by | February 2, 2012 · 4:17 PM

What’s in a Game?

Even with less games, one game means much less in a lockout-shortened season.

I spent some time today with Doyle running over last night’s Mavericks-Thunder game, both teams’ chances in the West, and the strenuous (or is it?) relationship between the Thunder’s stars.

TH: Last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder managed to dismantle the reigning champion Dallas Mavericks.  The loss, though, is not too surprising, as the Mavs were without Lamar Odom and Brendan Haywood, and Jason Kidd is still out with his calf injury.  Dirk Nowitzki had a spectacularly awful game (2-for-15 shooting) and Rick Carlisle was thrown out of the game after punting a ball into a boy’s face.  How do you, Doyle, feel as a Mavs fan about this loss?

DR: I don’t think that the term “dismantle” is appropriate in this instance. This was a game that the Thunder should have won since they have been deemed the Golden Child of the Western Conference. You mentioned the absences on the Mavericks’ roster last night so this should have been a cake walk for OKC, but it wasn’t. This was a competitive game with the Mavericks finding ways to either lead or stay in contention until the final minute of the game. If Nowitzki did not shoot so poorly, clearly his knee is still bothering him, and if the Mavs had some shots fall late, the outcome of this game could have been different.

TH: The one worrying thing for the Mavs is this:  Nowitzki’s had a few bad games, is this all because of the knee or could there be a mental problem that’s causing his trouble?  He’s been complacent often this season, and watching the game against the Spurs (his first game back, I know), Dirk doesn’t seem as fearless as we’ve come to expect.

DR: I’m not as concerned with Nowitzki as I’m sure many are. It would be easy to blame his issues on the lockout but that is a cop-out that is used all too often in this shortened season. We are about a fourth to a third of the way through the season so I expect Dirk to miss more time this year for rest and conditioning. This is true for almost every player who will be injured this season. I also do not think that his recent struggles are mental either. Against the Thunder he stepped into several bold shots in the fourth quarter. Those shots simply did not fall. He’ll be fine as the season progresses and despite being the face of the franchise, the Mavericks have other players who can step up and fill the void when they are called on.

Dallas has the highest scoring bench in the league and also has one of the deepest. The likes of Jason Terry, Odom (when not dealing with a stomach bug), Vince Carter, Delonte West, Rodrigue Beaubois, Ian Mahinmi, and Brandan Wright have all shown that they are more than capable of contributing to the team when called upon. Sure, Dirk being in a funk is disappointing but it is not catastrophic for the team.

TH: Agreed, and playoff seeding is going to be strange this season.  We’ve already seen how younger teams are capitalizing on bigger minutes for their stars, teams like the 76ers, Clippers, and Thunder.  If they manage to keep their high playoff seeds, it will be interesting to see how the older, more experienced teams like the Mavs, Spurs and Lakers re-allocate minutes. Last lockout, an 8th seed made it to the Finals.

But defense wins championships, and that is what ultimately gave the Thunder an edge over the Mavericks.  Without Kidd, the Mavs have to rely on a combo of Roddy B. and West, and there are simply too many contending teams with point guards who will take that matchup to task.  Western teams like OKC and the Clips would fare differently against Kidd’s perimeter defense and smart hands.  Here are a couple questions for you: Do the Thunder deserve their current record?  How do you envision the rest of their season?

DR: I’m not certain that having either Beaubois or West on the court is a bad thing against some of the elite point guards in the league. Both are younger and quicker than Kidd is and therefore have to capability of keeping pace, or at least better than Kidd, with the likes of Russell Westbrook and others. Also, both Beaubois and West bring a different set of skills to bear when on the court. West is a tenacious defender who likes to come off the bench and play alongside Terry thereby alleviating West’s need to score as much even though he is an able scorer. He is on the floor to hairy the opposing point. Where Roddy excels is by pressuring his defender on the offensive side of the floor. Much like Westbrook, Beaubois has an innate ability to penetrate the lane, though he does so with less bombast. Kidd is still a handful with his passing, court vision, and IQ but he has lost a step and the Westbrooks of the league will exploit that. Having West and Beaubois helps the Mavericks be a flexible and more difficult team to matchup with.

As for the Thunder, of course they deserve the record they have, they have won 17 games thus far and you cannot take that away from them. Bill Parcells that is famous for saying “you are what your record says you are,” and for the Thunder that means they have the best record in the West. However, that is not to say that the Thunder are perfect. In fact they are far from it. They are an extremely talented team, let me put that out there first, but they are also extremely inexperienced. On the break, OKC is one of the most dangerous teams in the league, perhaps second or third to only the Heat and Clippers, because they are fast and have the ability to finish at the rim. Westbrook is the spearhead and plays like a charging bull, lowering his head and relentlessly moving forward despite obstacles. Add the scoring threats of Kevin Durant and James Harden and you have the third most potent offense in the league. It is that offense, though, that gets the Thunder in trouble.

On the break, everything works well. However, in the halfcourt the Thunder often look lost and their offense stagnates. Frequently, Thunder players stand and watch the ball handler try to create for themselves in an isolation situation. Yes, the Thunder’s big three are great individual scorers but a Joe Johnson-esque ISO bogs down the entire offense and instills a heavy reliance on long jumpers or contested drives. With the skills that these players possess it is shocking that the Thunder are not more creative offensively, Scott Brooks, in my opinion, deserves a lot of blame for this.

When the Thunder offense is mobile in the halfcourt they create boundless mismatches but these go ignored far too regularly. In the game against the Mavericks there was a possession where Harden had the ball and was determined to take the shot, with Shawn Marion guarding him I believe, while on a switch Terry was defending Durant. Harden did not make use of the obvious advantage his team had in that situation and wound up missing the shot he took. Why Brooks is not irate or frustrated that this scenario repeats itself seemingly every game is anyone’s guess. The Thunder have a lot of growing to do if they are actually going to grow into the team everyone thinks they are. Until that happens they should be looked on as a new version of D’Antoni’s Suns. A good team that won’t make the Finals.

TH: I’m not so sure they won’t make the Finals, with the Western Conference being weaker than it has been in years.  The Chris Paul trade fiasco essentially knocked the Lakers from contention, alienating Pau Gasol and losing Odom to the Mavs for peanuts.  Dallas lost enough players over the summer that this year almost seems like a mini-Mark Cuban rebuilding effort, and San Antonio appears limited in roster movement until Tim Duncan decides to retire.  When was the last time any of these teams appeared so fragile?  Already headed this way, the lockout and compressed season has hit older teams harder than anyone would have expected.

After last year’s Conference Finals appearance, the Thunder have the experience and resilience to make it, but it hinges upon favorable seeding matchups and Westbrook’s shot selection.  Durant has shown more leadership this season, but it might take an MVP trophy for the rest of the team to realize that he’s the clear #1; also, an increased role for James Harden could produce stagnation, as he loves watching the ball leave his hand.  You’re absolutely right that the blame falls on Scott Brooks.  He needs to explain to his team, in clear terms, that Kevin Durant is the best basketball player on the Thunder.

Durant’s been strikingly supportive of his teammates, and I love it.  Superstars in the league now tend to throw their team or their coaching staff under a bus if it suits their personal aspirations, while Durant’s shown a commitment to the city, its team, and management.  But maybe they’d be a more cohesive team on the court if he were to drop the humility a tad, and stepped up and took sole ownership of the team.

DR: I’m not certain that Durant becoming more of a focal point for the offense to flow through is necessarily the right course of action. That could elicit a #MeloSystem style of offense. I would like to see Scott Brooks shoot an email to Sebastian Pruiti and request some suggestions for plays in the halfcourt. They could be much more fluid if he did.

You are right though, the West is wide open and the Thunder need to exploit it, but they need to first battle through the surprisingly tough Northwest Division. If the playoffs began today they would have to face the Trail Blazers in the first round. That is far from a desirable match…but nothing in the West will be ideal this year.

Yes, the Thunder are a good team but their mediocre defense and lack of ball movement could be their eventual undoing. Until that time they need to enjoy the ride. Oh, and…something, something, Westbrook and Durant hate each other, something. There, I think I just covered the main issue that we have been dodging.

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by | January 31, 2012 · 11:45 AM

Kendrick Perkins, Welcome to Blake Griffin’s Poster

Contributor Travis Huse and I discuss the merits, historical connections, and effects of Blake Griffin‘s monstrous dunk on Kendrick Perkins last night.

Doyle Rader:  Last night, Blake Griffin threw down the dunk of the year and Kendrick Perkins became the vice president of the Timofey Mozgov Get-Thunderously-Dunked-on-by-Griffin Association. That dunk was sheer power. LeBron James‘ dunk over John Lucas was all fine and dandy but it was John Lucas. Griffin destroyed Perkins. The Thunder brought him in to be a defensive presence in the paint but there is little he can do when the Blake Show has its eyes set on the rim. Not only did Griffin demoralize the Thunder but the Clippers beat the “vaunted” Thunder.

Travis Huse:  Payton-Kemp, Stockton-Malone, those are the names that play conjures up.  The feed from Chris Paul was absolutely perfect, and I’m excited to see how defenses try to prevent the Clips from even attempting side pick and rolls.  I would like to give Kendrick Perkins some credit, though, for even trying to put his body in there.  The Thunder were down 19 on the road, in a regular season game, but Perkins aimed for the contact.  I can’t see any other center in the league who would risk the embarrassment, but Perk didn’t seem very fazed in his post-game interview.  As basketball junkies, there’s nothing better than mid-air collision combat, and this was prime beef, to say the least.

DR:  I believe that Perkins said “It happens” when he was asked about being dunked on. So, on the surface he took it in stride but c’mon, his pride has to have taken just a little hit, everyone’s would. Yes, it was commendable that Perk sacrificed his body to end up on a poster but the end result was just making the play more spectacular. Scaling a grown man is damn impressive. But back to what he said, “It happens.” That is possibly the best way to describe Griffin’s play and effect on the league. It happens and it is happening more and more. He might not have the most refined post game or is a lock down defender but Griffin plays beyond himself and above the ground. Add Paul to the mix and one can only expect more show-stopping dunks.

TH:  The moral of this story is that if you give Blake Griffin 10 feet to gain speed, he’ll plow through you every time, no matter who you are.  He knows he can dunk on anyone, so even if defenses leave him wide open, he’ll still take it to the rim.  No one in the league can truly match up with him, and he plays more like Josh Hamilton as a blitzing linebacker than any active NBA player, he truly looks the most comfortable when he’s unleashing his power.  Killdozer.

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by | December 26, 2011 · 5:24 PM

NBA Christmas Wrap

Merry Christmas

With much fanfare and an obnoxious LMFAO ad that was played almost every commercial intermission, the NBA season kicked off in superb, albeit rusty, fashion. Yes, lockout legs could be seen throughout the five games that were aired but that is to be expected with abbreviated training camps. chemistry was also an issue as many teams have a number of new players to integrate into their rotations. Nonetheless, the NBA is back and fans and players are happy. A reaction:

Boston Celtics 104 – New York Knicks 106

Carmelo Anthony looked great in this game. His 17 points in the fourth quarter were the difference and why the Knicks thought it necessary to gut their team to acquire him. Throughout his time in the NBA, Anthony has proven he has a knack for performing in the clutch and he showed it on Sunday. However, the already shaky depth of the Knicks has grown even more unstable with a knee injury to rookie Iman Shumpert which will sideline him for at least a couple of weeks.

As for the Celtics, Rajon Rondo and Brandon Bass, who is finally free from the tyranny of Stan Van Gundy, were the offense with Paul Pierce missing the game. Rondo continually broke down New York’s defense and got to the rim. When Pierce comes back to the lineup the Celtics should be a more rounded offensive unit, until then this will be Rondo’s team.

Naughty: Kevin Garnett choking Bill Walker.

Nice: Carmelo Anthony’s clutch play.

Miami Heat 105 – Dallas Mavericks 94

The Mavericks raised their championship banner but that is all they had to celebrate on Sunday. Dallas came out looking flat and out of sync, in essence, they looked old. That should be no surprise because their entire core is over the age of 30. Rick Carlisle is integrating Vince Carter, Lamar Odom, Delonte West, who played well, and Brandan Wright into the rotation while dealing with key losses across the board. Jason Terry was the only Maverick who showed up to this one.

Miami looked like they were just rolled off of a German assembly line. They were well oiled and fine tuned. What they did to the Mavericks was scary. Say what you will about all the exhibition games this summer but they seem to have kept LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in game shape, that and their complete desire to destroy everything in their path. This was a blowout, like a brand new Mercedes-Benz S-Class versus a Trabant. Not only were the Heat good but they will get better. Rookie Norris Cole turned some heads with his play in 24 minutes of action. If he continues to improve he could supplant Mario Chalmers as the starting point guard.

Naughty: The Mavs’ 37.8 percent field goal shooting.

Nice: LeBron James‘ box score: 37 points, 10 rebounds, six assists.

Chicago Bulls 88 – Los Angeles Lakers 87

Forget Showtime, these are the Slowtime Lakers. That is not a knock on them, however, not in the least bit. This Lakers squad proved to be as scrappy and gritty as any I have seen. Perhaps this is what Mike Brown brings to the team, perhaps this is what a bunch of blue-collar white guys bring to a team, or perhaps this is just what happens when you lose Odom and Andrew Bynum serving his suspension. Nonetheless, I like the Slowtime Lakers. Where they do need to improve is offensive player rotation. Too many times they reverted to Hawks-esque isolation with three players around the perimeter and one near the post.

Chicago played well throughout, with the exception being the third quarter. With the game close, Luol Deng stepped up and made the big plays. It was his defense against Kobe Bryant and his steal late in the game that allowed the Bulls to go on a 7-0 run, capped by Derrick Rose‘s floater in the lane, to win the game. Rip Hamilton started for the Bulls but did not contribute much due to foul trouble therefore his time was split with Ronnie Brewer. Brewer is a solid defender with good court vision and should see more minutes this season.

Naughty: Kobe’s last shot attempt.

Nice: Rose’s floater to win the game.

Orlando Magic 89 – Oklahoma City Thunder 97

Much like the Heat Mavericks game, the final score does not do justice to the thrashing that actually occurred. Like Miami, the Thunder look ready for the season. Very ready.  Oklahoma City pounced on Orlando early and never relented. Their team is largely the same as it was last year so their learning curve is near zero when it comes to knowing each other and how to execute plays…when they are not freewheeling. Speed and athleticism are the monikers of this team and they will serve them well out of the gate. If only they could improve their shot selections *cough* Westbrook *cough*.

Where the Thunder took plenty of questionable shots when they had built their sizable lead, the Magic took even more haphazard shots throughout the entire game. I have said it many times: the Magic’s offense is terrible. There is nothing more that can be said. It looked like they thought that there was a pit of lava inside the three-point line. Get Dwight Howard the ball in the post and let him work.

Naughty: Hedo Turkoglu clearly indulged his gluttonous side during the lockout. Dude is chunky.

Nice: Kevin Durant. Need I say more?

Los Angeles Clippers 105 – Golden State Warriors 86

If ESPN had their way, this would have been a documentary about Mark Jackson and the greatness of his coaching style. Nevermind the fact Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were on the court, this broadcast was about Mark Jackson, hands down (man down). They showed a clip of him quoting Shakespeare before the game. He was the only coach shown in the huddle, mostly saying cliché motivational shit like “execution” and “focus.” That is all fine and good, but he does have a decent team that the broadcast could have talked about. I think Jackson will be a good coach but that much attention is unwarranted, especially on a nationally televised game. His first coaching milestone was the hack-a-Jordan technique he used on DeAndre Jordan.

The final score is not indicative of how the Warriors remained close for much of the game. Clearly, the Wizards of Lob are the better team but last night they showed chinks in their armor. The aforementioned hack-a-Jordan technique stymied the Clippers offense and brought it to a halt. Luckily, the Clippers have Paul, Chauncey Billups, and Griffin. All played well as they were able to outlast the Warrior. The new look Clippers are a work in progress to say the least and last night they showed it.

Naughty: ESPN’s love affair with Mark “Momma, there goes that man” Jackson.

Nice: Caron Butler‘s circus shot.

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by | May 24, 2011 · 10:53 AM

Kevin Durant is Sad

Dejected

When Kevin Durant walked out of the locker room to do his post game press conference a scene reminiscent of Arrested Development played out before out eyes. Durant’s gait and composure were that of a sad George Michael walking along with his head slung low to the tune of Vince Guaraldi’s “Christmastime is Here.” Even Durant’s backpack looked sad.

“I didn’t have anything else to do,” Durant said when explaining his shot at the end of regulation. “I caught the ball almost at the half court line, seen three Mavericks in front of me and had three seconds on the clock. I didn’t know what else to do. I tried to get a shot up. I didn’t want to run into their defense and get another turnover. I didn’t know what else to do.”

All that was missing was the sad piano music.

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by | · 10:15 AM

Ri-DIRK-ulous

Rising above

The beliefs of many have been shattered this postseason. For years those who are less knowledgeable but rather vocal have been quick to defame and tarnish Dirk Nowitzki. They were quick to blame him for the Dallas Mavericks’ playoff missteps. Labels of soft and choker were pinned upon him. However, that will not be the case any longer. Of course he will have his detractors, those who refuse to give any amount of credence to his game, but they will be ignored as conventional knowledge has accepted Nowitzki’s game finally. Better late than never.

Game Four against the Oklahoma City Thunder will go down as one of the greatest comebacks in NBA playoff history and it was fueled by Nowitzki. With 5:08 left in the fourth quarter the Mavericks were down 15 to the Thunder, who were, along with the crowd, celebrating wildly. If only they knew how premature their celebrations would become. Dallas rattled off a 17-2 run to tie the game in regulation forcing overtime. Nowitzki scored twelve of the 17 points including two free throws, after Nick Collison was finally called for a foul on him, to tie the game as ice coursed through his veins. He would go on to tally 40 points for the game.

To those naysayers who have always jumped at the opportunity to throw the first stones at Nowitzki after a playoff defeat Game Four was an affront to their beliefs. They were left reeling like Harold Camping when the Rapture never came. This was Nowitzki’s second 40-pint outburst during the series, he scored 48 in Game One. He became the first player since Shaquille O’Neal in the 2000 Finals to have two 40-point games and shoot 60 percent or better in those games. Those are just a few more marks on Nowitzki’s bloated playoff résumé.

This postseason, as the nation has an opportunity to re-acquaint themselves with Dallas’ future Hall of Famer, Nowitzki has put on a clinic. Not only that, but he his making a case for the best clutch performer in the league. Those with knowledge know that Kobe Bryant does not perform well with the game on the line. Nowitzki’s Efficiency Rating in the clutch is an astounding +62.7. That is almost double both Dwyane Wade‘s and LeBron James‘ ratings. His rating skyrockets while his turnover ratio plummets to zero. Nowitzki does not turn the ball over in the clutch. This does not mean that his defenders are not trying to wrest the ball from him. They most certainly are only to the tune of sending him to the line 29.3 times during the last five minutes of a close game.

Not only in the closing minutes of a game as Nowitzki been key but in the fourth quarter he has thrived all season including the playoffs. Against the Thunder he has scored 46 points in the fourth quarter. He had 10 points in Game One, 16 in Game Two, and 10 in both Games Three and Four. In the final frame he has shot a combined 58.6 percent.

Nowitzki means everything to the Mavericks. That is why they made their strongest push to resign him last summer, foregoing the circus that engulfed much of free agency. In these playoffs, Nowitzki has shown why he is so valuable. When he is on the bench, the Mavericks’ offensive rating drops from 114.44 to 98.63. Their rebounding percentage drops from 50.3 to 42.9 and their true shooting percentage goes from 59.3 to 51.2. Those are just a few of the declines, and there are many, that Dallas experiences when Nowitzki sits.

Now that the media has flooded its coverage of the Mavericks with the amazing statistics that Nowitzki has put up throughout his career, the haters, detractors, and those who just had no clue have run out of ammunition. Dirk Nowitzki is one of the best players in this generation. Period. There can be no questioning that. He is a lock for first ballot Hall of Fame induction. The scrawny kid from Würzburg, Germany has become an unstoppable force. He now sits just one win away from returning to the NBA Finals. A return trip will give him the opportunity for vindication and possibly revenge. As he has shown all postseason, he does not miss his opportunities.

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by | May 17, 2011 · 5:32 PM

Western Conference Finals Predictions: Mavs vs. Thunder

The end is near.

Two unlikely forces have emerged in the West in what should be a tale of David vs. Goliath in the conference championship.

3. Dallas Mavericks vs. 4. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of their greatest playoff run in franchise history.  This group of young guns just made the playoffs for the first time last season but now find themselves at the doorstep of the NBA Finals.

Standing in their way, is the most experienced team left in the playoffs that has overcome its own hurdles to get this far.

That being said and considering how strongly the Beef feels about this series, let’s do things a little different and start off with the prediction.

The Dallas Mavericks will DESTROY the Thunder leaving them little room but to maybe ring the doorbell of the Finals and ultimately loose in four games.  Yes, get your brooms out because these snot-nosed degenerates in OKC will disappoint everyone that has them picked to take this series past four games.

Here’s why:

Key Matchups:

Sadly, OKC is starting Russell Westbrook at point guard.  This overrated player in his third year out of UCLA has essentially been handed the reigns of the Thunder offense.  Scott Brooks’ laid back style is essentially in the hands of the player that led the league in turnovers during the regular season with 3.9 a game.  This postseason, Westbrook is turning it over 4.5 times a game.

His play is marred by tunnel vision and a jump-first mentality.  If he doesn’t have the shot, he then looks for the open man.  Usually, he just takes the shot.  Additionally, during several occasions during their series against the Griz, he would find himself trapped in the post with no easy way out.  Memphis took advantage of this by swiping at the ball while he was too busy looking for open guys or simply intercepted bad passes.  Either way, it was almost the downfall of the Thunder during that series.

DeSawn Stevenson had the daunting task of guarding Kobe Bryant in Dallas’ last series against the Lakers.  Rick Carlisle was able to throw the Black Mamba off his game early with Stevenson’s ability to pest the future hall of famer up and down the court.  He even begins his approach at the baseline as if the Mavs were in a full-court press.  This often leads to the offense having to run a screen just to inbound the ball.

His job will be to hit Westbrook early and hard.  In the first two games of the Lakers’ series at Staples Center, Bryant only sunk six shots in the first quarters.  Although Stevenson doesn’t offer a ton offensively, he will give the young guard a headache and cause early turnovers that will shake his confidence.

Westbrook does have the ability to drive and sometimes find the open man after collapsing defenders in the paint.  This is how teammates Kevin Durant and James Harden get so many open threes.  However, don’t expect the Dallas zone to fall for this so easily.  Even after Stevenson is benched Dallas’ Tyson Chandler or Brendan Haywood will be there in the paint to prevent any easy scoring.

Next, we have a matchup with the big men.  Oklahoma City is leading the league this postseason in defensive rebounds per game with 34 a night.  However, this should come as no surprise when you look at the smaller lineups they faced in both Denver and Memphis.  Dallas proved against LA that it has a very deadly frontcourt that offers up a lot of second-chance scoring.

Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will have their hand full against the taller and lengthier Chandler.  His tip outs have changed the way the Mavs rebound and give them an advantage on both sides of the court from giving Jason Kidd a chance to reset the play to fast break points which they had 18 of in their last game against the Lakers.  Not to mention, Chandler only gathered one personal foul against LA.  Emeka Okafor had 28 against the Lakers in the first round.

Perkins is not a tool in the OKC offense at all.  He’s mainly down in the post getting rebounds but not passes.  So far this postseason, he’s only getting 4.7 points a night along with almost 4 personal fouls a game.  Ibaka is putting up much better numbers but Westbrook is going to have to get him the balll.  Additionally, he needs to cut down on his personal fouls as well seeing as he has collected five fouls in during six games these playoffs.

X Factors:

The Mavericks bench is going to be crucial in this series.  Utilizing J.J. Barea in the fourth quarter has been very successful for the Mavs.  His speed caught the Lakers off guard late in both games three and four.  He’s a hard player to guard and can stretch a team out on the court.

Additionally, Jason Terry was on fire against the Lakers.  His nine three pointers in game four essentially took them out of the game from the start.  Peja Stojakovic will be essential as well.  Everyone in the stadium knows he is a sharp shooter but he often caught LA’s defenders off guard when he created shots off of the dribble after the likes of Bryant, Ron Artest and even Derek Fisher threw their bodies at him with their arms up to guard against the three.  He simply dribbled around them and hit an easy two pointer on multiple occasions.

Likewise, the Thunder will need to get some scoring from their bench as well.  Dallas has been off for eight days as opposed to OKC’s  two.  Not to mention. The scrappy series against Memphis has worn the Thunder out.  It will be up to their bench to bring some energy late in the game.  Harden is having a great postseason with 12.4 points a game but he can’t carry them alone.  Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed need to show up especially since Brooks doesn’t have a lot of size to deal with.

Next Kevin Durant needs to open his mouth and be the leader that this team needs,  Westbrook is taking just as many shots as he is at 20 a game these playoffs.  Durant moped during the overtimes in game four to Maurice Cheeks on the sideline instead of getting in Westbrooks’ face himself and asking for the ball.

This second-overall pick needs to stop acting like a docile child and actually take control.  He is the reason they are here and no one else.  If he allows this team to continue running plays with him as an afterthought that has to create his own shots, not only will they loose this series but his legacy will never live up to what people expect it to be.  This team is living by Westbrook and at their rate they will die by Westbrook.  This scoring champ needs to let him know who needs to be taking the shots.

Lastly, it comes down to how much Dallas wants this.  They have been in this situation before and put away a very good 2006 Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Finals.  That year, much like this one, they got better and better as the playoffs wore one outside of the Finals.  However, this is an older and different Mavs team and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  Carlisle has already proven his ability to recognize the need for adjustments especially with how he has dealt with all the options he has at guard.  Not to mention, Kidd is a much better point guard than Devin Harris and Chandler is a much better option that Erick Dampier.

Then their comes the one that wants this the most.  Dirk Nowitzki is sick of all the talk and is ready to finally prove something.  While Miami was popping champagne after defeating the geriatric and injured Celtics, Dirk marched off the floor with a sense of determination and professionalism.  He knows this may be his final chance to take what has eluded him for so long: a title.  Even Mark Cuban has shut his mouth as of late knowing very well what overconfidence can do to his Dallas Mavericks.  Even Dirk has an appreciation for a quite Cuban.

Prediction:

The Mavs have better everything: better coach, better guards, better offense, better defense, better bench, better big guys and a better resume this postseason.  Congratulations to the Thunder that knocked off Denver and Memphis who both lacked any players that averaged more than 20 points a game during the regular season.

Their playoff run was cute but it will end next Monday after the Mavs defeat them in game four.  Every sign shows that this Thunder team’s luck is about to run out.  This series sweep is going to be brutal so forget the broom, you’re going to need a wet vac.

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