Tag Archives: NBA Playoffs

by | April 28, 2012 · 8:45 AM

Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic First Round Prediction

It won't be close

(If you have read this blog for any length of time you know that my playoff series predictions can range from lengthy to long-winded. However, this will not be one of those times, this series does not warrant it.)

The Indiana Pacers have entered the postseason, as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, with little fanfare. National media markets rarely cover small market teams unless they are excelling far beyond their means, which, honestly, the Pacers have done. Well, not exactly. They should be as good as they are, they made the right moves and have a head coach who is legitimately worthy of the Coach of the Year award. Everything about this team screams almost contender.

If circumstances hadn’t conspired to spite this whole series it might be one of the best ones in the entirety of the first round. Alas, it won’t be. The Orlando Magic are completely impotent without Dwight Howard, who will miss the playoffs, and the Olympics, after undergoing lower back surgery. Orlando with field a ragtag team of stagnate perimeter players, Stan Van Gundy is want to have his team jack up 3′s galore, with the likes of Glen Davis (who is probable for game one with a sprained right ankle) and Earl Clark holding down the middle. Eww.

Orlando has problem and Howard, though he is a headache and has caused the most drama in the Magic Kingdom since Shaq, has simply been good enough to mask those issues, on the court at least. This is a team going nowhere fast. They have assembled a plethora of sub par talent around their superstar. Otis Smith clearly took a page out of Danny Ferry’s playbook.

Indiana will win this series. It shouldn’t even be a contest.

Doyle Rader predicts: Pacers defeat the Magic 4-0

Travis Huse predicts: Pacers defeat the Magic 4-1

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by | April 27, 2012 · 8:45 PM

Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks First Round Prediction

Melo ISO, we will see that a lot

If there wasn’t some drama hog who lived in Orlando, this season’s headlines would have focused squarely on the tumultuous, and miraculous, year that the Knicks have had. They signed Tyson Chandler, they have been good, then bad, then terrible, then Linsanity struck, then Mike D’Antoni stepped down as the head coach before he could be fired, then Mike Woodson took over as head coach, then they signed J.R. Smith, then Jeremy Lin got hurt, then Carmelo Anthony played is ass off (he still is), then Amare Stoudemire came back from injury and that brings us to the present. Phew!

Now, the Knicks enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and are playing some of their best ball of the season thanks in large part to Anthony’s incredible play over the last couple of weeks. With the injury to Stoudemire, Anthony shifted to power forward and has excelled. His shooting range has drawn larger defenders away from the paint, freeing up passing and cutting lanes. When he has a smaller defender on him he has the ability to post them up or shoot over them. On the defensive end of the floor he is actually trying, and not just sort of trying, trying as hard as he can fronting larger players, swiping at the ball and hounding players of comparable size. This is a Melo we have never seen. This is the Melo that the Knicks traded half of their roster for.

Yes, the Knicks are back in a big way, so much so that Steve Novak celebrating with his discount double check move does not seem ludicrous. This is a team, that despite their myriad of injuries has persevered and one courageous storyline has superseded the previous one has it fell by the wayside. These Knicks just won’t die. Now they will face their next daunting challenge, only this one does not come from within the organization.

The Miami Heat are title favorites. They lost in the Finals last season and still carry that burden and bitter taste with them. Yet, they enter the postseason seeming uninterested. Miami sleepwalked through the second half of the season, resting various parts of their big three. During that span they rarely beat a team with a record over .500. It was as if they were just biding their time, knowing that they were assured of a playoff berth.

Despite their lackadaisical attitude after they All Star break, the Heat enter the playoffs as a second seed and are still one of the most feared teams in all of basketball because of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. They have some tertiary players as well, Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers, and Udonis Haslem lead that bunch, but when it comes to the Heat, it is about their big three. It will be curious to see if they do have that switch that they can turn on to return to their demonstrative, Flying Death Machine form. They act as though they are about to flip that switch, but is it that easy?

Miami will challenge the Knicks’ defense at the rim, namely Chandler, with their athleticism and slashing. It will behoove them to get Chandler into foul trouble early because not only is he the anchor of New York’s defense, but he is also a superb rebounder and the Heat are terribly undersized. If Chandler does get onto early foul trouble often it will allow Miami to open up their spacing on the offensive end where they can effectively use Bosh in the high post and elbow to set screens and pick and roll or pop opportunities.

Frankly, Chandler will be in foul trouble, that’s just what he does. However, the Knicks work better with a smaller lineup. It allows them to get their 3-point shooter on the floor creating isolation situations for Anthony and Stoudemire. If a double comes, they can kick the ball out and their teammates can swing it around the perimeter for an open look. There will be several moments during this series where Novak is left open, though he should never be, and he will drain an important three.

As much as they would like to, the Knicks’ starters do not match up well with those of the Heat. Their bench will be the key to keeping the games close. Miami’s ball movement stagnates when their bench is on the floor which is why Erick Spolstra likes to keep one or two of his stars on the floor with his bench unit. The bench is the advantage for the Knicks, however it would be disastrous to rely on them for significant periods of time against the fourth best defense in the NBA.

It may take a game or two, depending on Wade’s injured finger, but the Flying Death Machine should return to form and terrorize the league once more. New York will try and run but the Heat, despite their sixteenth rank pace of 91.2 are some of the best in the open floor.

It was fun, New York.

Doyle Rader predicts: Heat defeat the Knicks 4-1

Travis Huse predicts: Heat defeat the Knicks 4-2

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by | · 5:20 PM

Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers First Round Preview

Why so serious?

It was an almost monumental collapse that sent the Philadelphia 76ers to the verge of missing the playoffs entirely. Luckily, they aren’t the 2007 New York Mets and they just squeezed into the postseason, aided by the perpetual hump that taunts the Milwaukee Bucks. As with anything in this culture of spin, the Sixers readily admitted that they prefer to face the Chicago Bulls, who are the number one seed in the East. It seems as though they have an aversion to playing the Miami Heat and as such they didn’t even try to win their last regular season game so that they could lock up the eighth seed. If this logic seems flawed, that’s because it is. Yet, when a team realizes who and what it is, as the Sixers may have done as they watched their excellent first half of the season be for not, they must adapt to a mindset that reaches above limited expectations. Therefore: bring on the Bulls!

Obviously, this is not an ideal scenario for the Sixers. They are the eighth seed and have lost all sense of identity as the shortened season slogged into a battle of attrition with body, fatigue, and Doug Collins. Despite having capable players and some depth the defined roles of players have been blurred and they can no longer threaten an opponent from all sides. Especially in late game situations, Philadelphia becomes a haphazard mess as player take arrant, contested jumpers and become uninterested defensively. Though they possess the ability to force turnovers late, and have done so repeatedly, their instinct to close and win games is nonexistent. If they hope to overcome this self-imposed obstacle they better have a damn good plan and execute it flawlessly because at the end of games, Chicago is their antithesis.

Perhaps, with an oft ailing Derrick Rose, the Sixers thought they matched up well with the Bulls. On paper, maybe. Andre Iguodala and Luol Deng matchup well and should cancel one another out. This same line of thinking is extended to the matchups of Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer; and Lou Williams and the shell formerly known as Rip Hamilton, who, despite riding the pine (a dated term as the folding chairs the players sit on resemble the luxury of a fine recliner) for much of the season, has shown occasional bursts of his former, productive self; and Thaddeus Young, with his range, could conceivably draw Taj Gibson out of the paint, where his shot blocking is to be feared. That is where the comparisons, flawed as they are, end.

Jrue Holiday is not the reigning NBA MVP, Rose is. Evan Turner was the second overall draft pick a couple of years ago but he has yet to fully understand his roll on the Sixers and can get completely lost over the course of a game. Then there is Jodie Meeks and Spencer Hawes. All are decent players, unrefined, but decent nonetheless. Yet, they cannot fully match the depth that Chicago brings to the table.

The Bulls, to go along with the players already mentioned, have Joakim Noah, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, John Lucas, C.J. Watson, Omer Asik, Mike James (remember him?), and the main man, Brian Scalabrine. Here the advantage is the Bulls’. Oh, and they have Rose.

One interesting note, however, is that the Sixers, this season, performed better against the Bulls when Rose was on the court. Their net rating goes from -5.2 with him on the bench to 5.8 while he is in the game. This can be attributed to the rise in their 3-point percentage from 18.8 percent to 26.3 percent with Rose on the floor.

It will be interesting to see who Iguodala guards. He will likely split time between Rose and Deng but when not guarding one, the other has the potential to thrive.

Personnel aside, the Bulls implement one of the most disciplined defenses in the league. They hold their opponents to a league low 88.2 points per game on 42.1 percent field goal shooting, a number that is second best in the league. Chicago also allowed a league low in number of 3-point shots they allowed their opponents to take as they are quick to chase players off the arc, forcing them into the teeth of their defense. Perhaps the heart of their defense is their rebounding. They led the league in defensive rebounding, rarely allowing a second chance opportunity. What the Bulls lack in mediocre offense, and it is just that, make no mistake, they more than make up for in superb defense that will be tough for the Sixers to crack.

This series will be dominated by defense. The 76ers have the third best defense in the NBA so Chicago shouldn’t feel all high and mighty entering this match up. Where the Sixers should try and exploit the Bulls is by getting to the free throw line. Philadelphia is much more adept at creating fouls and going to the line than Chicago. This could be a great equalizer as the Sixers are ranked 23 in points per game and 24 in pace.

Essentially, the meeting of the Bulls and Sixers will not be exciting to the casual fan. It will be marred with slow, tedious action, countless turnovers forced by two good defenses, and a veritable lack of scoring. In the end the Bulls will out bore (and it will be boring) the Sixers and advance to the second round. One could hope this series would be similar to the Bulls and Pacers first round meeting last season, but that seems a bit far-fetched. Those Pacers were hungry, these Sixers are lost.

Doyle Rader predicts: Bulls defeat 76ers 4-1

Travis Huse predicts: Bulls defeat 76ers 4-1

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by | April 18, 2012 · 2:58 PM

Ribeye to Eye: The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

Even the East is juicy this year

Doyle Rader and Travis Huse discuss the NBA’s Eastern Conference, namely the playoff situation (what do you think of this segment’s tentative name?):

DR: Before we get rolling on how we feel the Eastern Conference playoffs will look, I want to address something that I saw last night. Now, I didn’t watch this game, I feel sorry for anyone that did, but I kept an eye on the score throughout the night because, well, I simply didn’t believe what I was seeing. The Detroit Pistons demolished the Cleveland Cavaliers 116 – 77. Now, the 77 points that Cleveland scored are deceiving. On the surface it appears to be a respectable, albeit low, total. It most certainly was not. At the end of three quarters the Pistons were up 100 – 50. Yes, they had a 50 point lead. 50 points! My God! This is the NBA. I know that there is a very vague level of parity that exists in the league, although it often cannot be found on a nightly basis, but what an embarrassment. At least the Bobcats weren’t the worst team in the NBA for one night.

OK, had to get that off my chest. What do you think about the Eastern Conference playoff picture?

TH: I don’t even know how you let the Pistons drop 100 on you. In the middle quarters, the Pistons scored 71. The Cavs only scored 6 more points than that in the entire game.  Oof.

Home court appears to be set, with the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, and Indiana Pacers spread enough apart that no one will be able to chase them. Bulls’ losses at Miami and Indiana could give the Heat a slight chance to make the top seed, but that’s a tough thing to imagine. Due to the NBA Playoff format, Boston will nab the 4th seed after winning the Atlantic Division. The remaining four spots are a murkier view.  With Dwight Howard‘s back injury and the myriad of front office issues the Orlando Magic have faced, it’s hard to imagine them competing with the Atlanta Hawks for the right to play Boston.  That being said, they seem to be a more cohesive, team-first organization without Howard.  Teams with a distinct desire to win will remember this when Dwight-a-palooza 2.0 hits next season, and will likely pass.  He’s more meant for the organizations that have a need for PR purposes than ones who need to win.  Every team has a joker, a guy you can’t rely on (Luke Babbitt, Metta World Peace, Stephen Jackson with 29 NBA teams), but it’s not exactly the best formula for winning if that guy also happens to be your superstar.  Recent history has shown that in order to win, your best bet would be with a humble star (Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki), instead of the splashy names. Orlando’s not a postseason threat to anyone in limbo, but they might make a last push in order to save face. Knicks can have the 7th seed, whatever.

The 8th spot is something to consider, though.  Could the Philadelphia 76ers really fall out of the picture with only 5 games left in the regular season? Absolutely. The Milwaukee Bucks are only a game and a half behind, and they play the 76ers at home. Since the trade deadline, this Bucks team is almost, sorta, maybe clicking, somehow.  A loss here could spell doom for Philly.

DR: Humble stars? Are you forgetting Kobe Bryant? He may actually be humble off the court but on the court he is quite loquacious with his game.

You’re right about the Magic, though. They are dead in the water and I’m pretty sure that Atlanta has the tie breaker over them so it’s doubtful that they move up in the standings, especially with Howard resting his back injury for the foreseeable future. Some have even speculated that he could sit out the playoffs too. Drama Dwight knows how to play ‘em doesn’t he? The Magic will be a first round exit; the top three teams in the East are too good.

As for Philly, they are taking all their cues from the 2007 Mets. This was a team that I predicted was the scariest team in the East at midseason. I was way off with that one. It is simply mind blowing that they could fall apart this bad. There has been plenty of blame to throw around but it is the whole team that needs to accept responsibility for this showing. Andre Iguodala scored more than 20 points last night for the first time ALL SEASON. This is a well balanced team at virtually every position, and hypothetically, they can rely on scoring from all their pieces but this is crunch time and their balance is dwindling. It is completely conceivable that Milwaukee catches them.

New York is locked into the 7th seed behind the might of Steve “Discount Double Check” Novak. What a flawed and exciting team. I’m pretty sure that they can only exist with one star healthy at a time if they have any hopes of winning. Jeremy Lin led the team at one point, Stoudemire did it early on, now it’s Melo’s turn. It’s the oddest damn thing that they cannot coexist.

TH: Kobe’s an outlier, though, simply because of his self-concept as the post-Jordan Jordan. He’s his biggest critic, and he forces his teammates to play at the best of their ability. Dwight, Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James have been habitual excuse-makers, and it shows when they’re really tested in the playoffs.

As for the Knicks, I still think they can mesh. Mike Woodson has done a great job with Melo so far, and if he can get Stoudemire to buy into him (not his plays even, but Woodson the man), they’ll work. Melo’s triple-double against the Celtics is firm evidence that he’s much more likely to defer a bit to his teammates than ever before. As soon as the Knicks can get Anthony to pass the ball, we’ll see an increase in his shot selection, and they’ll be able to run high pick-and-rolls with STAT, and then they’re golden.  The Knicks need two things on offense, from my perspective. They need unselfish play from Anthony in pick-and-roll situations, and they need to move the ball from left to right in the halfcourt.  If they get defenses paying attention to that sort of movement, it will free up a TON of space for the stars to drive.

DR: With Amar’e coming back from injury soon, Woodson has indicated that he will insert him backing into the starting lineup. Thus, Carmelo will move back to small forward as he has been playing the four spot. I just wonder if this is going to hurt their defense moving forward since Stoudemire isn’t known as a defensive anything. But it looks like we will see a Knicks Heat first round series so that should be fun.

Anyway, there is one team flying under the radar right now and that is fairly unbelievable. The Indiana Pacers are cruising! They have won 10 of their last 11 games and are simply clicking on all levels. The change of tempo that Leandro Barbosa has brought to this team is remarkable. Danny Granger is efficient and resisting the ‘hero-mode’ urge more than usual. Roy Hibbert is a double-double machine and Tyler Hansbrough has returned to his ever scrappy play that we saw in the first round against the Bulls last year. Oh, and they have David West. This team IS dangerous, yet, no one is talking about them at length outside of the guys at eightpointsnineseconds.com. Whether they play Orlando or Atlanta in the first round, the Pacers should see the second round for the first time in a while.

TH: I love this Pacers squad so much.  They were a boatload of fun last season, and all the guys they added are quality.  Of course I have to love George Hill, but David West was such a wonderful pickup for these guys.  I truly feel that this time next year, once the Magic and Celtics and Hawks suck, they will cement themselves as a perennial contender and a new Bulls-Pacers rivalry will form, maybe one that puts Indiana on top.

DR: The job that Frank Vogel has done with this team is remarkable. They have won more games already this season, in a shortened year, than they did all of last year. There aren’t many teams that can make that claim who are making the playoffs.

I think, though, one of the biggest concerns going into the playoffs is the health of the star players. Derrick Rose has been hurt, Rajon Rondo landed hard on his coccyx last night, Howard is hurt, how will Amar’e integrate, and to a lesser extent, Zaza Pachulia is also hurt. Teams like the Bulls and Celtics need to be healthy if they expect to compete deep into the playoffs. I know players will play hurt in the post season with everything on the line but with the season wrapping up it might be wise just to rest players. Miami is already doing it. In fact they will probably be the most rested team by the time the postseason begins.

TH: I’m not going to lie, I burst out laughing when Zaza’s name came up. Only in Atlanta. Not exactly worthy of the “Highlight Factory,” but with Al Horford out, you take what you can get.

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by | April 15, 2012 · 11:10 AM

Teams end season battling for playoff positions

Nothing is certain, yet, in the race for the last few playoff positions, but after last night, the picture is a little clearer. Heading into Sunday, Milwaukee, Denver, Houston, Phoenix, and Utah were all jockeying to hold or grab spots in the postseason. With about two weeks left in the season, the race to playoff seed is heating up.

Just a week ago, the Bucks were hot but have since hit a snag as they have faced some stiffer competition in the likes of the Thunder, Knicks, who they are trying to catch for eighth in the East, and the Pacers. They lost each of those contests. With six games remaining the Bucks need to either win out, there is likely no other option as they are two and a half games behind New York. Three of their remaining games will be against teams who are currently slated to make the postseason. They play the Pacers again, the Sixers, and the Celtics to close the regular season. Out of those three teams, Philadelphia is the most interesting.

The Sixers are currently experiencing a Mets-ian collapse since the All Star break. It looked, for a time, that they were going to run away with the Atlantic Division but now Boston has a firm grasp on the division title. Philadelphia has lost six of their last ten games and are now tied with the Knicks in last place in the playoff picture. A further fall from grace could lend a hand to Milwaukee as they fight to make the last seed.

Per usual, the West is cluttered when it comes to who is going to be the last couple of seeds heading into the postseason. Three and a half games separate the sixth seed Mavericks from the Jazz, who are currently tenth in the West. At this point it would take a complete collapse for Dallas  to miss the playoffs but they could certainly fall in the standings. Denver and Houston are tied in the standings and currently hold playoff spots. However, Phoenix is nipping at their heels sitting two and a half games back. Just a half game behind the Suns are the Jazz, who have surprised just about everyone this season as head coach Tyrone Corbin have molded into a formidable and balanced team. He needs to be mentioned in the Coach of the Year discussion, especially if the Jazz weasel their way into the playoffs.

An interesting twist to the race for the last two seeds in the West is that the Rockets and Nuggets play each other in a home and away Sunday and Monday. If either team drops both of these games it leaves the door wide open for the Suns and Jazz. Houston recently fell to both the Jazz and Suns and needs to sweep Denver today and tomorrow to essentially lock up a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Jazz and the Suns face off in Salt Lake City on April 24 in what could be a crucial meeting if the Rockets or Nuggets fall on consecutive nights to the other. Utah has a much easier schedule to end the season than the Suns as they face the Blazers, sans LaMarcus Aldridge, twice and the Magic, who are without Dwight Howard. The Suns, on the other hand, also face the Blazers but then must play the Thunder, Clippers, Nuggets, then the Jazz, and they close the regular season against the Spurs. To put it succinctly, the odds are not stacked in Phoenix’s favor.

The most interesting aspect of the rounding out of the playoff teams is that all the teams in the Eastern Conference could enter postseason play with winning records. It has been since the 2004-05 season since every team in the East in the playoffs had a winning record. Unfortunately for all the teams vying for those last few spots, their season will likely end with a first round exit.

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by | May 24, 2011 · 10:15 AM

Ri-DIRK-ulous

Rising above

The beliefs of many have been shattered this postseason. For years those who are less knowledgeable but rather vocal have been quick to defame and tarnish Dirk Nowitzki. They were quick to blame him for the Dallas Mavericks’ playoff missteps. Labels of soft and choker were pinned upon him. However, that will not be the case any longer. Of course he will have his detractors, those who refuse to give any amount of credence to his game, but they will be ignored as conventional knowledge has accepted Nowitzki’s game finally. Better late than never.

Game Four against the Oklahoma City Thunder will go down as one of the greatest comebacks in NBA playoff history and it was fueled by Nowitzki. With 5:08 left in the fourth quarter the Mavericks were down 15 to the Thunder, who were, along with the crowd, celebrating wildly. If only they knew how premature their celebrations would become. Dallas rattled off a 17-2 run to tie the game in regulation forcing overtime. Nowitzki scored twelve of the 17 points including two free throws, after Nick Collison was finally called for a foul on him, to tie the game as ice coursed through his veins. He would go on to tally 40 points for the game.

To those naysayers who have always jumped at the opportunity to throw the first stones at Nowitzki after a playoff defeat Game Four was an affront to their beliefs. They were left reeling like Harold Camping when the Rapture never came. This was Nowitzki’s second 40-pint outburst during the series, he scored 48 in Game One. He became the first player since Shaquille O’Neal in the 2000 Finals to have two 40-point games and shoot 60 percent or better in those games. Those are just a few more marks on Nowitzki’s bloated playoff résumé.

This postseason, as the nation has an opportunity to re-acquaint themselves with Dallas’ future Hall of Famer, Nowitzki has put on a clinic. Not only that, but he his making a case for the best clutch performer in the league. Those with knowledge know that Kobe Bryant does not perform well with the game on the line. Nowitzki’s Efficiency Rating in the clutch is an astounding +62.7. That is almost double both Dwyane Wade‘s and LeBron James‘ ratings. His rating skyrockets while his turnover ratio plummets to zero. Nowitzki does not turn the ball over in the clutch. This does not mean that his defenders are not trying to wrest the ball from him. They most certainly are only to the tune of sending him to the line 29.3 times during the last five minutes of a close game.

Not only in the closing minutes of a game as Nowitzki been key but in the fourth quarter he has thrived all season including the playoffs. Against the Thunder he has scored 46 points in the fourth quarter. He had 10 points in Game One, 16 in Game Two, and 10 in both Games Three and Four. In the final frame he has shot a combined 58.6 percent.

Nowitzki means everything to the Mavericks. That is why they made their strongest push to resign him last summer, foregoing the circus that engulfed much of free agency. In these playoffs, Nowitzki has shown why he is so valuable. When he is on the bench, the Mavericks’ offensive rating drops from 114.44 to 98.63. Their rebounding percentage drops from 50.3 to 42.9 and their true shooting percentage goes from 59.3 to 51.2. Those are just a few of the declines, and there are many, that Dallas experiences when Nowitzki sits.

Now that the media has flooded its coverage of the Mavericks with the amazing statistics that Nowitzki has put up throughout his career, the haters, detractors, and those who just had no clue have run out of ammunition. Dirk Nowitzki is one of the best players in this generation. Period. There can be no questioning that. He is a lock for first ballot Hall of Fame induction. The scrawny kid from Würzburg, Germany has become an unstoppable force. He now sits just one win away from returning to the NBA Finals. A return trip will give him the opportunity for vindication and possibly revenge. As he has shown all postseason, he does not miss his opportunities.

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