Tag Archives: Kendrick Perkins

Miami Heat Poised to Win Championship

One more

Doyle Rader: With the Miami Heat one win away from their second ever NBA title, now is as good a time as any for us to talk about the Finals. Last night, the Thunder, namely Russell Westbrook, threw everything they had at the Heat in an attempt to tie the series but came up just short as they have in every game since Game 1. Plenty of people are singling out Westbrook for the foul he committed on Mario Chalmers with 15 seconds left in the game as the moment the Thunder lost the game. (They were down three points at that time.) Yet, this is a complete overreaction to the play in my opinion. If it wasn’t for Westbrook in the first place the Thunder would have likely not even been in this game. He poured in 43 points on 20 made field goals. Everything was falling for him last night. It was a performance on par with what Rajon Rondo did against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. During the presser LeBron James even likened those two performances to each other. It seems to me that a new narrative (it isn’t that new actually) is forming around Westbrook, scapegoating him, doubting him, much in the same ilk that James has dealt with throughout his career. However, James is on the cusp of shattering his previous narrative and the baggage that came with it.

Travis Huse: If we’re looking at problems here, it’s not Westy. Harden went
2-10 last night and finished with 8 points, and here’s the part where I tell
you that he was still third in the Thunder’s point totals. They managed to
beat the Spurs with an effective team play atmosphere, and they’ve lost the
contributions from Harden and Serge Ibaka. Smart team play can defeat Miami, but pitting a “Big 2″ against a “Big 3″ is suicide.

Casual basketball fans tend to place much more emphasis on offense than
defense, and that’s the population most affected by Anti-Westbrook Fever.
But you can’t overlook how the Heat have been able to control the tempo of
the game, and Harden looks thrown off. He was 2-10 on Sunday, as well, held
to only 9 points. If he wants the label of next-generation Manu Ginobili, he
needs to step up better now, where it really matters.

DR: You’re right, Harden has been bad, but it isn’t just his shooting. For
some reason, and there has been much to talk about concerning Scott Brooks’
rotations, Brooks insists on having Harden defend James for extended periods
of time. I know that James is a player that is difficult to defend on every
level but this simply is not where Harden should be utilized on the
defensive end. Time and again, James will just post him up since he is
bigger and stronger and the results have been devastating.

Zach Lowe over at SI.com touched on that today. By his tally, Miami scored 24 point on James post-ups. The points did not all come from LeBron as he was able to hit open teammates when double teams came his way. He finished the game with 12 assists. How can anyone stop him at this point, let alone an undersized player known more for his offense?

It’s not just Harden, though, you are correct in pointing out Ibaka’s
dramatic fall-off but Kendrick Perkins has been equally awful. He is the
wrench in the gears. Nick Collison showed flashes of brilliance against the
Heat in Game 4 but then vanished. Poof! Scott Brooks is showing us his
inexperience with these stubborn, and at times haphazard, lineups that he
has been throwing out there.

Last year Rick Carlisle showed his flexibility by inserting J.J. Barea into
the starting lineup to wondrous results for Dallas as they went on to win
the championship. Erik Spoelstra was left in the dust scratching his head as
he stuck with Mike Bibby in the starting lineup for too long. Now, Spoelstra
is in command and his small center-less lineups are rendering OKC’s bigs
completely useless.

TH: To be very honest, one of the biggest hindrances in Lebron’s career has
been his unwillingness to post up. He used to be very prone to jacking Josh
Smith-type 3s, so much so that every time I play against him (Miami or
Cleveland) on the 2K games, I will sag off him and make him shoot it. I
might have to change my approach with the next one. And it makes sense that
their success has revolved around his post play, because the dude is the
biggest, strongest, most athletic person that might have ever existed. The
Thunder don’t have anyone who’s going to be able to defend him without
leaving a glaring mismatch. I’m not sure anyone in the league does, and
that’s why the Heat are one win away from the championship.

They’re a stronger team than last year, and they’ve found a way for both
Lebron and Dwyane Wade to play together. Right now their bench is outplaying the Thunder bench. I don’t see any way the Thunder make it as champs, and you’re right, Spo is out-coaching Brooks. Unless something drastic changes, the Heat seem to be poised to close this one out sooner rather than later.

DR: After the body language that Durant showed last night in the post game
presser this series could wrap up Thursday night. During that presser we
witnessed the return of Durant’s backpack, which had been MIA all
postseason. It too was just as sad an dejected as Durant as he let it fall
to the floor, shoulders slumped. It reminded me of the Western Conference
Finals last year. There were many a sad backpacks to be found in that
series.

Here’s the thing though, as I am not a true fan of either of the teams in the Finals, just a fan of the game, I have slowly come to view the post game presser as must-see throughout these playoffs. Sure, the questions are generally fluff, verging on inane at times, but I find them to be truly interesting.

Chris Bosh, who has been great this series, gives one of the best presser
interviews there are. Honestly, if more people heard him speak, instead of
instantly buying into the “Like a Bosh” or “Bosh Face” trope, they would see
just how smart, composed, and well spoken he is.

But of course the presser is all about the clothes. Man, these players
(Westbrook) wear some silly expensive shit. That said, Wade won the presser
clothes game last night when he came out wearing glasses that were straight
off the face of Dwayne Wayne from Different World.

TH: I’ve never really understood why Bosh gets so much shit. He’s a consistent 20-10 player, a perennial all star, who stretches the floor very well. His outside touch does wonders for the sometimes-anemic Heat offense, exposing the rim for the slashing of the other two stars.

It has become so commonplace to make fun of the Heat, that the worst thing I could think of has happened. I have moved past resenting them, past feeling sorry for them, into rooting for them as an underdog. Obviously, they are not the underdog, but I now feel that I have to throw stats in the faces of anyone who harps in on how much they hate the Heat.

DR: I found myself in the same place as the Finals started this year. For various and extremely biased reasons I cannot bring myself to root for the Thunder organization so that left me with only one choice. I have James many times on this blog, taking both a negative and positive view of him and his game. Seeing all the backlash towards one of the greatest players the league has ever seen has continually shocked me, though. Sure he, and the Heat have made some questionable choices in the past but does that really outweigh what goes on in a game? Miami is the most scrutinized team in sports and it is simply ludicrous to hear some of the things said about them.

The Heat deserve to win the championship this year, if for no other reason that silence the doubters who continually lob volley after volley of asinine rhetoric interspersed with buzz words at them all the while refusing to make sound judgments and arguments. At this point, if winning a championship is the only way to get it through the thick skull of some people that James is good and so are the Heat then so be it. They shall be vindicated.

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Western Conference Finals Preview

“Why, Lord, must we play the Spurs?” -James Harden

Travis Huse: With the Oklahoma City Thunder’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night, our Western Conference Finals matchup is set. They can book their flight to San Antonio. Frankly, this series looks to eclipse the NBA Finals in terms of excitement. These games are going to pit the league’s two best offenses against each other, and with some very strange matchups to make things interesting. We have the league’s best scorer in Kevin Durant being guarded by Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive rookie this season. The Thunder’s best defensive player, Serge Ibaka, will have to defend the rejuvenated and driven Tim Duncan. Manu Ginobili on James Harden. Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook trying to blow by each other. I’m totally pumped for these games. But looking at the Spurs lately, as well as their games against the Thunder this season, is there any hope for the Thunder to pull this off?

Doyle Rader: I agree that this series has great potential, it probably won’t be a seven game series as some might be hoping for, though. However, each game should be extremely competitive. As far as your matchup predictions I think you have it dead on with Leonard defending Durant. As for the rest I think that Scott Brooks will have Kendrick Perkins, if he is healthy, guard Duncan. Or at least until Duncan steals his lunch money and gives him a swirly. Perkins’ has the body mass to try and dislodge Duncan from the block but will get lost when Duncan drifts to the top of the key or his favorite 45 degree bank shot location. I just don’t see Ibaka as a viable defender on Duncan. His defensive prowess is predicated on off ball positioning and weak-side help and shot blocking. Ibaka has improved his face up defense this season but he need s the freedom to roam and hedge to be effective.

Much like we saw against the Clippers, the Spurs will probably use Danny Green to try and slow down Russell Westbrook. I doubt Parker will spend a whole lot of time guarding Westbrook this series. It looks like the Spurs have the advantage with disrupting the Thunder with the number of matchups and mismatches they can create on the court, but the Ginobili/Harden battle should be special.

TH: Ginobili vs. Harden is a great situation because they’re both 6th men, both fan favorites, and can play with some fire. As for Parker on Westbrook, I could see Pop keeping Tony on him just because he’s not Chris Paul. Against the Clippers, you need Green’s long arms to prevent Paul’s unparalleled passing ability, whereas with Westbrook, you’re going to be better the more he has the ball. If the Spurs can goad him into playing hero ball (like he did, in oh, say, last year’s WCF), the Thunder are done. The only way the Thunder have a chance is if Westbrook defers more. And if he can still score 30 while deferring. So it’s going to be tough.

Another thing I’d like to reiterate. This is a series that contains both the #1 and #2 offense in the league. But the Spurs stars have played so much less this season and are so much deeper, that the Thunder will need to highlight their defense to prevent giving up insurmountable leads while their stars rest. Look at these minutes numbers so far this season (including playoffs):

Kevin Durant: 2912
Russell Westbrook: 2655
James Harden: 2219

Tony Parker: 2203
Tim Duncan: 1890
Manu Ginobili: 1002

Even if you throw out Manu’s numbers because of his injuries in the regular season, that’s a pretty big contrast. Tony Parker has played less than OKC’s 6th man, which is a huge thing to take into consideration this season, because all those games were condensed.

DR: All of the OKC players you listed are younger than us. I think they’ll just fine in terms of fatigue, they have yet to show any signs of dwindling yet. In fact they outscored the Lakers in the combined fourth quarters of their series 119-97.

As you mention, these are prolific offenses. Maybe I’m just old-school, but I still think defense will define the series. The 7-Seconds or Less Suns never got to the Finals for a reason. The Spurs, though they have completely altered their identity, still have a defensive pedigree. They might not be as fast as the Thunder but they work well as a cohesive unit defensively and have completely dominated their previous opponents. I expect a platoon defense to be used on all three of the Thunder’s stars that features Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Green, Gary Neal, and Stephen Jackson. That’s a lot of bodies and fouls. Brooks should do the same against Parker and Ginobili with Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Thabo Sefolosha, and Daequan Cook. Don’t expect Derek Fisher to matter. The backcourt of San Antonio is too quick.

TH: Yeah, we’re going to see a ton of different lineups, but I think the onus is on the Thunder to figure out how to crack this Spurs team. San Antonio is on a roll, and performed very well against the Thunder this year (and since Kevin Durant first made the playoffs with this team, the Spurs have won 8 of 10). The strategies that they have been employing simply haven’t worked, and there’s no reason to believe that unless the Thunder manage to change their game significantly before the start of this series, that there is no plausible hope that they can win it.

DR: Scott Brooks has definitely grown as a head coach this season but he is out classed and outmatched in every conceivable way in this series. Gregg Popovich is one of the greatest coaches that the NBA has seen and is a future Hall of Famer. He has seen just about everything and has more contingency plans than NATO had for a Soviet strike during the Cold War. Pop is the best coach in the league, and not just because he won Coach of the Year this season. I just don’t see any coach left in the playoffs that could possibly out-coach him and that is what it is going to take to beat the Spurs.

TH: My neighbor gave me 10-to-1 odds on a bet that the Spurs would make the Finals. It was the day the Spurs signed Boris Diaw (March 23rd), and I felt at that time they were as complete as they could possibly be. Plus, I would have only lost 10 bucks. They’ve lost two games since then, and right now I feel pretty darn secure with that decision.

DR: As a Mavs fan it is hard for me to heap praise on the Spurs, (don’t fret Thunder fans, I equally despise your team too) but I’m not so biased as to be blind. They are the better team in this series, hands down. Spurs win the series in five games.

TH: 5 games? Damn, that’s rough. I’ll say they pop two off against the Spurs. Spurs in 6.

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The Narrative of the Clippers

Flop!

Doyle Rader: From what one can gather, beyond their 3-1 lead over the Memphis Grizzlies, the Los Angeles Clippers are not a team about basketball. Sure, they are comprised of men who run around on a basketball court and occasionally dribble or shoot an orange Spalding, but at their essence, we should believe, that is not what they are about. No, they are about flopping and doing so as if it were their birthright. Forget Chris Paul‘s brilliance, forget Blake Griffin‘s power, and forget Reggie Evans‘ muckraking. They are all floppers! That is all we need to know about them.

Travis Huse: Since when has a Los Angeles sports team been about sports? The officials are giving them superstar calls, and it’s not surprising. Last season, the Thunder won a first-round game against Denver because Kendrick Perkins got off with a clutch offensive interference (the same situation that earned Rick Carlisle a technical foul in THIS season’s opening series). With the obvious decrease in league-wide interest in the Lakers, as well as the splashy new ownership of the Dodgers, the league has to protect the market in LA. Wait, did I just say that?

DR: You did. It’s OK. I’ll let it slide. But you are right to some extent that sport is not the first thing one thinks about when it comes to the narrative of the Clippers. There’s the bigotry of Donald Sterling, the years of futility, and Billy Crystal. But this is different. Those are examples of narratives within the team and its existence…and Billy Crystal. This isn’t about calls either. Flops aren’t a foul, they are a tool used to draw them, an embarrassing one, but one nonetheless, and I refuse to believe that the league has motives to call the series a certain way. This is about a narrative, that of the flop, being superimposed on the Clippers by outside forces rather than letting the Clippers forge their own story. It’s akin to preëmptive hindsight in a way. If that even makes sense.

TH: I’ll agree with you on some aspects of what you just wrote. But not too much. The Clippers have a wonderful offensive lineup, with the best playmaker in the game in Paul, and one of the best finishers in Griffin. But for a team that relies so much on strength and athleticism, their defensive strategy has been, well, wimpy. In the regular season, they let opponents shoot 36.5% from the three, a mark that places them third worst in the league. Griffin has a vertical leap of about a trillion inches, yet hasn’t recorded a single block in the first four games, but he’s gathered 21 fouls. His biggest criticism all season long was his lack of a complete basketball game, and this team is comprised almost entirely of players in much the same vein. What happens when the Grizzlies move firmly to a hack-a-Quake strategy? He’s shooting 55.6% from the free throw line, compared to his FG% of  56.9% so far this postseason. This Memphis team is a strong team, and could still pull off this series. If they don’t, the Clippers are going to face the best offensive team in the league right now in San Antonio. They might not have the interior big men defenders that Memphis has, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable at all trading buckets with the Spurs. This is a team that should be able to use their size, agility, and speed to shut down pick-and-rolls, but it takes the thing they lack. Grit and grind.

Let them win a playoff series. It will make their second-round exit that much more humbling, and they need that. They don’t deserve a shot at the Western Conference title; don’t deserve a spot in the playoffs. I’m not ready to crown the Thunder the heralded kings of the West, let alone the Clippers.

DR: I’m not ready to crown anyone. You’re right that the Clippers are a wholly flawed team but that isn’t what their narrative is being shaped as. Nor is it trending towards their resiliency late in games thus far though the indomitable will of Paul. The overarching theme of the flopping Clippers has been propagated by entities such as True Hoop and their Hoop Idea campaign. Together they have forced a narrative on the Clippers. The idea of the flop as the embodiment of the Clippers is an idea created by others rather than letting the team forge its own image. This seems to be a larger concept that I am working towards as a whole. It isn’t the numbers or play on the court that seem to matter. It is one thing that defines them.

TH: Those are things we’ve heard all season long. I think the hype now on flopping is more a statement that they need an induction into hard playoff basketball than anything, and I wish the refs would let them take the sort of contact that they’ve received. This team should be so much tougher than they are, but there’s been too much posturing and preening. It has to feel good to bring such a historically awful team to the brink of the second round and I understand that. But watching them is infuriating because they only work half of each game. It’s been thrown around too much, but it’s there, and it shouldn’t be ignored.

DR: Obviously, the flopping can’t be ignored. It happens. We see it. It’s embarrassing for everyone, yet, the over emphasis in coverage of the flopping is verging on ludicrous. Flopping is not the embodiment of the Clippers. Lots of NBA players flop. It just happens. Perhaps what I am really trying to say is “get over it” and stop positing one act, out of the hundreds that take place during the course of a basketball game, as the end-all be-all of the Clippers playoff run. Just roll your eyes and move on.

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Kendrick Perkins, Welcome to Blake Griffin’s Poster

Contributor Travis Huse and I discuss the merits, historical connections, and effects of Blake Griffin‘s monstrous dunk on Kendrick Perkins last night.

Doyle Rader:  Last night, Blake Griffin threw down the dunk of the year and Kendrick Perkins became the vice president of the Timofey Mozgov Get-Thunderously-Dunked-on-by-Griffin Association. That dunk was sheer power. LeBron James‘ dunk over John Lucas was all fine and dandy but it was John Lucas. Griffin destroyed Perkins. The Thunder brought him in to be a defensive presence in the paint but there is little he can do when the Blake Show has its eyes set on the rim. Not only did Griffin demoralize the Thunder but the Clippers beat the “vaunted” Thunder.

Travis Huse:  Payton-Kemp, Stockton-Malone, those are the names that play conjures up.  The feed from Chris Paul was absolutely perfect, and I’m excited to see how defenses try to prevent the Clips from even attempting side pick and rolls.  I would like to give Kendrick Perkins some credit, though, for even trying to put his body in there.  The Thunder were down 19 on the road, in a regular season game, but Perkins aimed for the contact.  I can’t see any other center in the league who would risk the embarrassment, but Perk didn’t seem very fazed in his post-game interview.  As basketball junkies, there’s nothing better than mid-air collision combat, and this was prime beef, to say the least.

DR:  I believe that Perkins said “It happens” when he was asked about being dunked on. So, on the surface he took it in stride but c’mon, his pride has to have taken just a little hit, everyone’s would. Yes, it was commendable that Perk sacrificed his body to end up on a poster but the end result was just making the play more spectacular. Scaling a grown man is damn impressive. But back to what he said, “It happens.” That is possibly the best way to describe Griffin’s play and effect on the league. It happens and it is happening more and more. He might not have the most refined post game or is a lock down defender but Griffin plays beyond himself and above the ground. Add Paul to the mix and one can only expect more show-stopping dunks.

TH:  The moral of this story is that if you give Blake Griffin 10 feet to gain speed, he’ll plow through you every time, no matter who you are.  He knows he can dunk on anyone, so even if defenses leave him wide open, he’ll still take it to the rim.  No one in the league can truly match up with him, and he plays more like Josh Hamilton as a blitzing linebacker than any active NBA player, he truly looks the most comfortable when he’s unleashing his power.  Killdozer.

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Team USA continues Despite the Lockout

 

What the future may hold

LeBron James is in, Kobe Bryant is a go, and Kevin Durant will likely suit up. After that the state of USA Basketball for the 2012 Olympics in London is up in the air, especially with the possibility of losing the entire 2011-12 NBA season.

Monday looks like the day that could make or break any possibility of an NBA season. This has been stated many times over during the course of the lockout but with the players union preparing to rejected the latest offer from the league, this is quite possibly the last grasp at a 72 game season before talks completely break down with the owners reverting to their hardline 53/47 percentage split of basketball-related income and the decertification of the NBPA. With that possibility looming, where does Team USA stand?

USA Basketball are not conjoined at the hip, though they are virtually inseparable. The national team, since FIBA altered their rules in 1989, has been comprised entirely of NBA players. This will not change even with a lockout. It would be foolish to send a team of college players to the Olympics and expect to compete with the likes of Spain, Argentina, and Lithuania. Yet, there can be no denying that the lockout could strain the eventual formation of Team USA.

Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski has no NBA affiliation as he coaches the men’s team at Duke University. There should be no complication with him returning to coach the program. However, aside from Jim Boeheim who coaches at Syracuse, the assistant coaches coach in the NBA. Mike D’Antoni is the current head coach of the New York Knicks and Nate McMillan coaches the Portland Trail Blazers. As per the rules of the lockout, neither D’Antoni nor McMillan is allowed to have any contact or communication with the lockout players.

Herein lies the first hurdle for Team USA. They will be without two of their assistant coaches if the lockout persists. With Krzyzewski, D’Antoni and McMillan have successfully orchestrated the present liquidity that embodies Team USA. The Redeem Team that won gold in 2008 at the Beijing Olympics was completely dismantled two years later, partly do to lack of interest and previous engagements by the players who were a part of that team, and transformed into a lengthy and quick, uptempo and undersized bunch who won gold at the World Championships in Turkey in 2010. D’Antoni is fluent in the rules and style of the international game having coached for years in Italy which has helped NBA players transition to FIBA rules and style. Losing both coaches will be a hit for Team USA but not one that will completely derail the coaching staff.

The coaches can be easily replaced. Though this means that the staff may not have the same continuity with the pool of players eligible to fill out the fifteen man roster. However, other college coaches such as John Calipari, who is always looking to increase his recruiting pool, Tom Izzo, and perhaps even Roy Williams could be considered to fill the roles of the assistant coaches. Other names may also be included if D’Antoni and McMillan cannot return to the bench. Larry Brown jumps out as a possible candidate having been head coach of Team USA before. Yet, this is all just speculation at this point and is predicated on the length of the lockout.

Team USA could also be without their trainers Casey Smith and Keith Jones, who work for the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets respectively. If the NBA season is lost, not only will Jerry Colangelo have to recruit players to join the 2012 incarnation of the national team but he may also have to rebuild his coaching and support staff.

Colangelo is still a minority owner of the Phoenix Suns. His position as managing director of USA Basketball, however, has allowed him to remain apprised of players’ interest in joining Team USA, though he cannot discuss the lockout in any terms. Colangelo believes that despite the lockout, a team can be assembled with players from both the 2008 and 2010 squads.

According to the official team roster at USABasketball.com, the pool of players available is much greater than just those who have played on the national team before. Other than Bryant, James, who have both committed, and Durant, how the roster will fill out is anyone’s guess. It is likely that Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony will return, and Chris Sheridan has speculated that Blake Griffin is a “shoo-in.” Chris Bosh will probably return, as will Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul. After that it becomes dicey (as if speculation was not already). There are still six spots open on the roster if these players to indeed return.

To fill the remaining vacancies will require coach Krzyzewski to determine the style of play that his team will execute in London. As stated above, the 2010 national team was swift and agile relying more on their athleticism than on physical size.

The candidates that are left are Lamar Odom, Tyson Chandler, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, possibly Kendrick Perkins, and perhaps Eric Gordon. None of those players are slouches and if Team USA prefers to reincarnate the 2010 team then Andre Iguodala should also be considered.

At this point, nothing is certain. The Olympics are where players build their brand. It is not completely about national pride, do not delude yourself. This is a stage on the global market. In most countries outside of the U.S. everything stops so that they can watch their nation compete. NBA players fortunate enough to be selected to the national team know that and so do their agents and sponsors. The Olympics are a big deal and London has been a world city since the middle ages. That is not lost on the players.

With the season in flux and headed towards what might be complete and utter fail (pardon the meme), the Olympic games in the summer of 2012 are the last remaining legitimate basketball that NBA players could see for some time. As of now, Team USA is keeping their summer schedule conservative, understandably. Official rosters must be submitted in June. On the slate for Team USA is two exhibition gamed against Spain in July 2012 as well as a friendly against Great Britain. France will also likely get a friendly in too before the start of the summer games. However, a quick resolve to the lockout could change everything.

The lockout threatens only the NBA at this point. Team USA is still in good hands.  No matter what happens to the 2011-12 NBA season, there will be a formidable team fielded by the United States. They will be the favorites to win it all. Haters will pick Spain with their frontcourt of Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka. Honestly though, a team representing a country in as many financial hardships as Italy cannot be taken too seriously. There is a reason all their players moved to the U.S. (financial aside). The United States has reestablished itself as the dominant force in international basketball. Do not for one second, or one lockout, that players do not want to maintain that supremacy. A gold medal might not be the Larry O’Brien Trophy but it still speaks wonders unto itself.

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Western Conference Finals Predictions: Mavs vs. Thunder

The end is near.

Two unlikely forces have emerged in the West in what should be a tale of David vs. Goliath in the conference championship.

3. Dallas Mavericks vs. 4. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of their greatest playoff run in franchise history.  This group of young guns just made the playoffs for the first time last season but now find themselves at the doorstep of the NBA Finals.

Standing in their way, is the most experienced team left in the playoffs that has overcome its own hurdles to get this far.

That being said and considering how strongly the Beef feels about this series, let’s do things a little different and start off with the prediction.

The Dallas Mavericks will DESTROY the Thunder leaving them little room but to maybe ring the doorbell of the Finals and ultimately loose in four games.  Yes, get your brooms out because these snot-nosed degenerates in OKC will disappoint everyone that has them picked to take this series past four games.

Here’s why:

Key Matchups:

Sadly, OKC is starting Russell Westbrook at point guard.  This overrated player in his third year out of UCLA has essentially been handed the reigns of the Thunder offense.  Scott Brooks’ laid back style is essentially in the hands of the player that led the league in turnovers during the regular season with 3.9 a game.  This postseason, Westbrook is turning it over 4.5 times a game.

His play is marred by tunnel vision and a jump-first mentality.  If he doesn’t have the shot, he then looks for the open man.  Usually, he just takes the shot.  Additionally, during several occasions during their series against the Griz, he would find himself trapped in the post with no easy way out.  Memphis took advantage of this by swiping at the ball while he was too busy looking for open guys or simply intercepted bad passes.  Either way, it was almost the downfall of the Thunder during that series.

DeSawn Stevenson had the daunting task of guarding Kobe Bryant in Dallas’ last series against the Lakers.  Rick Carlisle was able to throw the Black Mamba off his game early with Stevenson’s ability to pest the future hall of famer up and down the court.  He even begins his approach at the baseline as if the Mavs were in a full-court press.  This often leads to the offense having to run a screen just to inbound the ball.

His job will be to hit Westbrook early and hard.  In the first two games of the Lakers’ series at Staples Center, Bryant only sunk six shots in the first quarters.  Although Stevenson doesn’t offer a ton offensively, he will give the young guard a headache and cause early turnovers that will shake his confidence.

Westbrook does have the ability to drive and sometimes find the open man after collapsing defenders in the paint.  This is how teammates Kevin Durant and James Harden get so many open threes.  However, don’t expect the Dallas zone to fall for this so easily.  Even after Stevenson is benched Dallas’ Tyson Chandler or Brendan Haywood will be there in the paint to prevent any easy scoring.

Next, we have a matchup with the big men.  Oklahoma City is leading the league this postseason in defensive rebounds per game with 34 a night.  However, this should come as no surprise when you look at the smaller lineups they faced in both Denver and Memphis.  Dallas proved against LA that it has a very deadly frontcourt that offers up a lot of second-chance scoring.

Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will have their hand full against the taller and lengthier Chandler.  His tip outs have changed the way the Mavs rebound and give them an advantage on both sides of the court from giving Jason Kidd a chance to reset the play to fast break points which they had 18 of in their last game against the Lakers.  Not to mention, Chandler only gathered one personal foul against LA.  Emeka Okafor had 28 against the Lakers in the first round.

Perkins is not a tool in the OKC offense at all.  He’s mainly down in the post getting rebounds but not passes.  So far this postseason, he’s only getting 4.7 points a night along with almost 4 personal fouls a game.  Ibaka is putting up much better numbers but Westbrook is going to have to get him the balll.  Additionally, he needs to cut down on his personal fouls as well seeing as he has collected five fouls in during six games these playoffs.

X Factors:

The Mavericks bench is going to be crucial in this series.  Utilizing J.J. Barea in the fourth quarter has been very successful for the Mavs.  His speed caught the Lakers off guard late in both games three and four.  He’s a hard player to guard and can stretch a team out on the court.

Additionally, Jason Terry was on fire against the Lakers.  His nine three pointers in game four essentially took them out of the game from the start.  Peja Stojakovic will be essential as well.  Everyone in the stadium knows he is a sharp shooter but he often caught LA’s defenders off guard when he created shots off of the dribble after the likes of Bryant, Ron Artest and even Derek Fisher threw their bodies at him with their arms up to guard against the three.  He simply dribbled around them and hit an easy two pointer on multiple occasions.

Likewise, the Thunder will need to get some scoring from their bench as well.  Dallas has been off for eight days as opposed to OKC’s  two.  Not to mention. The scrappy series against Memphis has worn the Thunder out.  It will be up to their bench to bring some energy late in the game.  Harden is having a great postseason with 12.4 points a game but he can’t carry them alone.  Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed need to show up especially since Brooks doesn’t have a lot of size to deal with.

Next Kevin Durant needs to open his mouth and be the leader that this team needs,  Westbrook is taking just as many shots as he is at 20 a game these playoffs.  Durant moped during the overtimes in game four to Maurice Cheeks on the sideline instead of getting in Westbrooks’ face himself and asking for the ball.

This second-overall pick needs to stop acting like a docile child and actually take control.  He is the reason they are here and no one else.  If he allows this team to continue running plays with him as an afterthought that has to create his own shots, not only will they loose this series but his legacy will never live up to what people expect it to be.  This team is living by Westbrook and at their rate they will die by Westbrook.  This scoring champ needs to let him know who needs to be taking the shots.

Lastly, it comes down to how much Dallas wants this.  They have been in this situation before and put away a very good 2006 Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Finals.  That year, much like this one, they got better and better as the playoffs wore one outside of the Finals.  However, this is an older and different Mavs team and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  Carlisle has already proven his ability to recognize the need for adjustments especially with how he has dealt with all the options he has at guard.  Not to mention, Kidd is a much better point guard than Devin Harris and Chandler is a much better option that Erick Dampier.

Then their comes the one that wants this the most.  Dirk Nowitzki is sick of all the talk and is ready to finally prove something.  While Miami was popping champagne after defeating the geriatric and injured Celtics, Dirk marched off the floor with a sense of determination and professionalism.  He knows this may be his final chance to take what has eluded him for so long: a title.  Even Mark Cuban has shut his mouth as of late knowing very well what overconfidence can do to his Dallas Mavericks.  Even Dirk has an appreciation for a quite Cuban.

Prediction:

The Mavs have better everything: better coach, better guards, better offense, better defense, better bench, better big guys and a better resume this postseason.  Congratulations to the Thunder that knocked off Denver and Memphis who both lacked any players that averaged more than 20 points a game during the regular season.

Their playoff run was cute but it will end next Monday after the Mavs defeat them in game four.  Every sign shows that this Thunder team’s luck is about to run out.  This series sweep is going to be brutal so forget the broom, you’re going to need a wet vac.

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Eastern Conference Finals Prediction: Bulls vs. Heat

Battle of wills.

The league’s MVP squares off against Miami’s three-headed beast for the chance to go to the NBA Finals.

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 2. Miami Heat

What the regular season taught us was that the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat are very evenly matched. Their three meetings were decided by a combined total of eight points, all Bulls victories. That was the regular season, and that was before each of these teams slogged their way to within a series of the NBA Finals. Miami, despite having to go through the Boston Celtics, has seemingly had the easier road thus far. They were never in any real trouble against the Philadelphia 76ers and handled the Celtics better than most anyone could have imagined. They celebrated like East and West Germans did when the Berlin Wall fell after they beat the Celtics. All they needed was David Hasselhoff in a light-up jacket and their celebration would have been complete. Perhaps the celebration was a bit premature; Ganesa has not removed all of their obstacles. Miami is, after all, only half way to their goal and have to face the team with the best record in the league.

Chicago faced their largest test in the first round as the Indiana Pacers threw everything they had at the Bulls, exposing a multitude of weaknesses that had been overlooked by outside observers. The Pacers eventually succumbed to the Bulls’ rebounding might. Though the Atlanta Hawks won two games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, they were their own Achilles heel falling back into predictable Isolation sets late in games which allowed Tom Thibodeau to keep his defensive unit on the floor stifling Atlanta’s best efforts to play one-on-one basketball.

Defense will dominate this series. It has been the hallmark of both of these clubs throughout the regular season and in the playoffs. This post season, Chicago has limited its opponents to the fewest points per possession while Miami ranks fourth. Defensive rebounding has a lot to do with limiting an opponent’s points and both teams are adept at cleaning the defensive glass.  Where the Bulls do out-pace the Heat is in turnovers. Chicago creates more turnovers, and thereby more scoring opportunities, than the Heat. However, history would not appear to be on Chicago’s side despite the similarities of the two clubs. Six times in NBA history a team with the league MVP and no All Star teammates has faced a club with three or more All Stars in the playoffs. The team with more All Stars has won five of those meetings. The last time this happened was last season when the Cleveland Cavaliers were eliminated by the Celtics in the second round.

Marquee Matchups:

Derrick Rose vs. the Miami Heat

Head Coach Erik Spoelstra and LeBron James have made it very clear that Miami will employ multiple defenders in their attempts to slow down the league’s MVP. Everyone from Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, and James will spend time guarding Rose. Bibby will start the game “guarding” Rose, Spoelstra has said, but Chalmers will be the one tasked with defending him for much of the game. “I think he’s one of the best in the NBA in getting in the paint. I have to do a good job of keeping him out,” Chalmers said and the numbers support his belief. Rose leads the playoffs in points inside of five feet with 106. When Rose gets into the paint he is shooting 45 percent, but when he gets within the restricted area his average climbs to 54 percent. In terms of shot distribution, 38.7 percent of Rose’s field goal attempts are taken at the rim. If the Heat does manage to limit Rose’s drives to the rim they still have not completely stopped him. He is shooting 46 percent on his midrange field goal attempts and most of these shots come as a result of the pick-and-roll. Rose leads the playoffs in scoring off the pick-and-roll with 118 points and runs 11.9 of them per game. To contain Rose’s scoring Miami must trap him along the perimeter and force him into a three-point shot. Beyond the arc, where Rose takes his second highest percentage of shots, he only shoots 27 percent.

Chicago’s defense vs. Miami’s offense

King Ghidorah

Slowing down the trio of James, Wade, and Chris Bosh (or Ghidorah as Hoopdata refers to them) is near to impossible. Even if one has a bad night or is swept into the emotion of a game, the other two will step up. What makes them especially potent is their ability to get to the free throw line. During the regular season, the Heat’s trio went to the charity stripe 36.3 percent of the time they attempted a field goal against the Bulls. As a team, Miami has the third highest offensive rating at 111.7 and that is despite playing a slow paced game. However, Chicago has the top rated defense in the league.

The Bulls have the pieces in place to pester Miami’s attack. Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer will be the primary defenders on Wade. Both are defensive minded two guards who can make Wade’s offense not flow as smoothly as it did against the Celtics. In the post, Joakim Noah will guard Chris Bosh. Noah has flustered each and every opponent that he has defended this post season and even had Josh McRoberts take a half-hearted punch at him that missed out of frustration. If Bosh let the ambiance of the TD Garden get to him, Noah will have him completely off kilter. As for James, his main defender will be Luol Deng. Size wise, Deng matches up well with James, however, in their regular season meetings James connected on 54.6 percent of his shots with Deng defending him.

X-Factors:

Because Miami will not be able to keep Rose out of the paint all the time, Joel Anthony will be the team’s last line of defense. Luckily for the Heat, he is their best defender and a more than capable shot blocker, blocking 4.1 percent of the shots taken while he is on the court. In fact, he is much more than that. He is Miami’s version of what Kendrick Perkins was for the Celtics in previous seasons. Anthony’s efficiency rating during the playoffs is a +101. In another nod to how valuable he is to the team, Miami’s opponents shoot 50 percent while Anthony in on the bench. While he is on the floor their opponents shoot 39 percent.

What are we to make of Carlos Boozer? This has been his worst post season statistically. He has shown flashes of why the Bulls signed him last summer, but they have yet to be consistent. He must show up in this series. Miami will focus primarily on Rose which will create opportunities for Boozer and he must capitalize on them. Many of his scoring opportunities will come off missed shots and he needs to be in position to get the offensive rebound and the put-back. Activity on the offensive glass will help the Bulls limit Miami’s possessions and their transition offense. If Boozer continues to slump, Taj Gibson will be called upon. Gibson is far more active on the offensive glass than Boozer and has been more productive over all. His athleticism could be the key to creating more scoring opportunities for the Bulls, especially when bench players are in the game. Chicago’s bench out-classes Miami’s.

Prediction:

This will not be high scoring series, that much is certain. Both of these teams’ defenses are too good. Since these teams are evenly matched across the board, this series will not feature many, if any, blowouts. These games will be close. Can the Bulls find their offense when Rose is not creating off the dribble? They have yet to show that they can. What does Miami have left in its tank after their emotional series victory over the Celtics? Did they exhaust themselves? In terms of an overall team, Chicago has the advantage. Yet, when it comes to edge, Miami is the team that has it after defeating its archetype. The Heat defeats the Bulls 4-3.

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Western Conference Playoff Predictions: Grizzlies vs. Thunder

Haters gonna hate.

According to the Beef and our predictions, this matchup wasn’t supposed to happen.  However, now that it’s here, we gotta break it down.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8. Memphis Grizzlies

We had the Thunder losing to Denver in the first round.  The Nuggets were the stronger team with more depth and the better coach.  The Thunder pulled it out though and nearly swept Denver who barely won game four.

Likewise, we had the Grizzlies succumbing to the No. 1 seed in the West, the Spurs.  Again, San Antonio had the depth, experience and the better coach in Greg Popavich but Memphis took care of them in six.

Now, we have two of the youngest teams in the West matching up in a series that will truly state who is ready to be an upper-echelon team.

Key Matchups:

Zach Randolph has really risen to the occasion for this team.  It took some good playoff games for him to get the well-deserved raise that they offered him last week.  However, he isn’t done yet.  Now, this is his team and he is going to be willing to do anything to take them to the Western Conference finals.

That being said, it comes down to who the Thunder decide to put on him.  Kendrick Perkins sounds like the man for the job but in their last matchup, he wasn’t healthy.  Also, Z Bo has a lot more energy and ability in the post than Perkins can handle.  He scraps for rebounds and gets a lot of second chance points for the Griz.  Serge Ibaka will have to get in there as well and try to slow down Randolph who is proving to be one of the biggest surprises of these playoffs.

Kevin Durant was the leading scorer for the Thunder in every game in the first round.  Denver was unable to stop the Durantula who only scored less than 25 in one of the five games against Denver when they held him to 23 in game two.

They still won that game due to the performances of Russell Westbrook with 21 and James Harden with 18.  Since Memphis will have no chance of stopping Durant, it will be them defending the rest of the team.  The Griz get a lot of steals and lead the league with 9.3 a game and it will be up to Westbrook and company to take care of the ball and accent Durant’s unstoppable scoring.

X-Factors:

Marc Gasol and Darrell Arthur Will have to show up for this series.  Oklahoma City doesn’t defend the post well at all.  They give up 22 points a game alone to the leagues various frontcourts and really lucked out since none of the big guys for Denver showed up for the last series.  Perkins got into foul trouble quite a bit in the first round so that might be a good player for them to attack.

The Thunder need to get some points from their bench.  The second unit for Memphis includes Shane Battier and O.J. Mayo who can both put up some points.  Even Greivis Vasquez showed he can ball in their game six win that clinched the series against San Antonio.  Harden will have to show up and score which he has proven he can do but they are going to need a lot more from Eric Maynor, Deaquan Cook and Nick Collison.

Prediction:

Since we have gotten everything wrong when it comes to these two teams so far, we might as well take a risk.  Memphis will win this series in six games.  They are on an intense high from the Spurs series and if they stay hot, no one can stop them.  They were 3-1 against the Thunder this season and they seem to be playing for a lot more.  This is the first time Oklahoma City has been to the second round but it’s the same for Memphis.  The only difference is that no one saw the Griz doing this and we don’t think they are done surprising people.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions: Celtics vs. Knicks

The Truth shall set you free.

A historic matchup of two of the most storied, and retooled, NBA franchises that will have superstars a-plenty but only one outcome.

3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knickerbockers

There was a time when the boys from Beantown were looked on as heavy favorites to win the East and return to the Finals. However, their recent skid since the team traded Kendrick Perkins is something to worry about. The New York Knicks also experienced a period of high expectations this season after acquiring the likes of Carmelo Anthony to play alongside Amar’e Stoudemire. It turns out though that the Knicks are not any better than they were before the Meloman came to town.

Boston is not a good rebounding team. They average only 38.8 rebounds per game and only collect 49.47 percent of the total available rebounds during a game which ranks them 20th in the league. Only two other playoff teams have a worse rebounding rate than the Celtics: the Atlanta Hawks and the Knicks. Luckily for the Celtics they consistently out-rebounded the Knicks in their four meetings this season in which Boston came out victorious in each with an average margin of 6.5 points. New York gave up an average of 45.3 rebounds per contest while collecting only 37.

Marquee Matchups:

Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony

Watching these players defend each other should be a treat for fans who do not care for the who “defense” thing. Luckily for them Mike D’Antoni is coaching in this series. For Piece, it will be key to get cut to the rim or make a false dive cut and then take his shot. Where Piece, and the Celtics in general will get into trouble against the Knicks is if they take too many spot up jumpers. They are not very good in this category as they average .912 points per possession when they opt to take a spot up jump shot. As for Anthony, he needs to isolate Pierce as best he can. This, however, will not be a beneficial as it may appear at first. Boston has one of the better Isolation defenses in the league because of the help that each player on the court will provide. Anthony works best in Isolation situations as he has yet to full grasp D’Antoni’s offensive schemes. He will get his points but it will be at the cost of many shot attempts.

Kevin Garnett vs. Amar’e Stoudemire

Stoudemire outscored Garnett in all but on meeting this season. This is because, at the time, Stoudemire was forced into the role of the Knicks’ center because of D’Antoni’s mistrust of Timofey Mozgov and the injuries that plagues Ronny Turiaf. For this series the two should square off against each other quite a bit depending on the lineups and schemes that D’Antoni runs in an attempt to break the Celtics’ defense. Garnett must be willing to play away from the rim to guard Stoudemire, who works in Isolations situations around the top of the key regularly. As for Garnett, he needs to move effectively off the ball so that when a slasher (Pierce, Rajon Rondo) enters the lane he can step into an open location and knock down a shot when his defender collapses to protect the paint.

X-Factors:

What is Chauncey Billups‘ role on the Knicks? Yes, he is their starting point guard but his shot selection, especially over the last few weeks of the regular season, has been abysmal. Mr. Big Shot has been anything but that. What he does bring to the Knicks is plenty of playoff experience. Other than Turiaf, he is the only player on the roster to have won a championship. New York is completely out-classed by Boston in this series. For them to have any shot at pulling off an upset, Billups must return to form and play like the player he was on the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

The cries from Boston keep imploring fans to wait for the return of Shaquille O’neal. To them, he is the difference maker on the team. There is a case to be made for this as well since the Celtics are 28-9 when the big fella is in the rotation. But what of his injury? Will he be healthy enough to give Boston what they need to sustain a long playoff run?

Prediction:

Despite Boston’s woeful second half they should still have enough depth and talent to dismiss New York. What they have going for them is a willingness to play defense which is something that D’Antoni has yet to instill in any of the team he has coached for. The loss of Perkins will become palpable later on in the playoffs for the Celtics but not in this series as their depth will prove to be key. Celtics defeat the Knicks 4-1.

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Return of Shaq could be delayed

Shaq wants to fight through the pain.

The Big Leprechaun says he should be returning in a week but Doc disagrees.

The Celtics’ big man Shaquille O’Neal thinks that he will be returning to the hardwood after missing the last 13 games after injuring his right Achilles tendon; however, head coach Doc Rivers thinks it may be longer.

The big guy actually got in some practice recently and at his birthday party yesterday he said that he is 85 percent.  Rivers and Celtics’ trainer Ed Lacerte say it could be longer since they want to play it safe.

So far, it looks like the coaching staff may be right in this instance since some of the pain did return during drills.

So far, Shaq has missed 25 of the Celtics’ 61 games but with the recent loss of Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic, the green guys are looking for an identity at center.

The Celtics are 5-0 since the trade with wins over the Clippers, Jazz, Suns, Warriors and Bucks.  Each is poised to miss the playoffs.

Truth be told, it’s a big man that these Celtics need.

Doc Rivers has had to rely on both Glen Davis and Krstic but neither is the caliber of player that a coach should have to rely on heavily at the five position.  Davis flourishes against various undersized benches in the East while Krstic doesn’t really put in heavy minutes.

With Jermaine O’Neal out with an injured knee for another four to six weeks, Boston doesn’t have many options for the center position.

They have been winning and are still first in the league in points allowed with only 91 a game.  This is due to Rajon Rando and Ray Allen’s ability to completely pest anyone on the hardwood.

The Perkins trade made perfect sense for Danny Ainge and the Celtics.  They dumped a big man with a history of injury for another defender in Green.  Nate Robinson was traded as well to the Thunder and Marquis Daniels was sent to Sacramento (soon to be Anaheim).  Both are injured and further prove the point that Boston was aiming to dump anything that could hold them back.

They missed Perkins in the last two games of the Finals last year when he went down with injury and Daniels wasn’t going to help out at all this year.  However, it was Robinson and Davis that had the perfect chemistry against the b-teams of the East.  They will miss that but they have to look to the future.

The Celtics’ remaining schedule is challenging.  They have 21 more games with matchups in Philadelphia, in New York, in New Orleans, in Indiana, in San Antonio, in Atlanta, in Chicago and in Miami.  Even though Boston is set to hold the No. 1 seed in the East, that’s eight road games that will truly test them.

Yes, Shaq is old and has been a minimal force for the Celtics this season but he can start for them.  He will give them some needed grit at the five position and allow them to rotate in Krstic and Davis to fit their styles of play.

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